A significant shift in public opinion regarding Brexit has emerged from a recent pan-European survey conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). The study, which polled over 9,000 individuals across the UK and five major EU nations (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Poland), reveals a surprising consensus: a substantial number of those who voted for Brexit in 2016 now favor a return to free movement, provided it secures access to the lucrative European single market.
The results are particularly striking in the UK. A remarkable 54% of British Brexit voters indicated a willingness to accept unrestricted movement of people between the UK and the EU in exchange for regaining single market access. This represents a significant turnaround in opinion since the 2016 referendum. The broader sentiment across the UK is even more pronounced, with 68% of all respondents expressing support for this arrangement, compared to a mere 19% in opposition. Even among supporters of the Reform UK party, a significant 44% backed the idea of free movement for single market access.
This change in attitude isn’t isolated to the UK. The survey also unveiled a substantial level of support for closer UK-EU ties within the EU itself. Notably, 45% of German respondents favored stronger relations with the UK, followed by 44% in Poland, 41% in Spain, 40% in Italy, and 34% in France. This indicates a broader European acceptance of a reassessment of the current UK-EU relationship, although the ECFR report acknowledges the issue holds more significance for UK respondents.
Several factors appear to be driving this remarkable shift. The protracted war in Ukraine, now in its 35th month, has imposed significant financial strains and energy insecurity across Europe, creating a new urgency for cooperation and stability. Moreover, the election of Donald Trump in the US introduces another layer of complexity. His “Make America Great Again” platform, with its potential implications for US-Europe trade relations and NATO, has likely fueled concerns about the need for a strong and unified European response and closer ties with key partners, even those outside the immediate EU bloc. The report notes that the UK and EU are both vulnerable to global events, emphasizing that a re-establishment of strong links is the most effective method of strengthening both sides.
The ECFR report suggests that the UK and the EU should pursue a rapid and decisive restoration of their ties, urging a bold approach to rebuilding relations. The implication is clear: Brexit, once seen as a solution to immigration concerns, is now increasingly viewed as a factor that complicates Europe’s response to significant global challenges. The survey results strongly suggest a potential path forward, but the political will to navigate this shift in public sentiment remains to be seen. The ECFR’s call to ‘go big and go fast’ will undoubtedly be a major talking point for policymakers on both sides of the Channel.
