A mysterious French trader, nicknamed ‘Theo,’ has made a fortune betting on Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election. Using several aliases on the prediction market platform Polymarket, Theo’s strategic investments have netted him an astonishing profit of nearly $50 million.
Theo, operating under aliases like Fredi9999, Theo4, PincessCaro, Michie, and RepTrump, placed bets across various aspects of the election, including Trump winning the electoral college, the popular vote, and key states like Pennsylvania. This shrewd strategy has yielded massive returns, with his total gains reaching $49.5 million and his current portfolio value exceeding $100.7 million.
Theo isn’t the only trader to have profited from the Trump wager. Another anonymous trader, going by the username zxgngl, focused exclusively on Trump’s election victory and earned a substantial $11.4 million. Similarly, walletmobile, another anonymous trader, also solely bet on a Trump win, reaping a hefty $6.1 million in profit.
The impact of Theo’s betting activities on the prediction market has been significant. From early October, his five accounts, collectively holding $6.4 million, grew to a staggering $52 million by the end of October. This massive influx of funds shifted the betting landscape and highlighted the potential influence of prediction markets in shaping political outcomes.
In an interview, Theo expressed his confidence in Trump’s victory, estimating a 90% chance of winning the election, including a 65% likelihood of winning the popular vote. This prediction proved remarkably accurate, as Trump secured the presidency and became the first Republican candidate since George Bush in 2004 to win the popular vote.
The influence of prediction markets and their role in shaping political landscapes will be a key topic of discussion at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on November 19th. This event will delve into the intricacies of prediction markets, examining their potential impact on elections and other areas of public discourse.
The success of Theo’s bets underlines the growing significance of prediction markets in shaping political outcomes. As these platforms continue to gain traction, their influence on future elections and political discussions is likely to grow even stronger.
