Goldman Sachs ka Analysis: Global Trade Se India Par Asar
Goldman Sachs ka kehna hai ki emerging Asian markets mein foreign fund inflows tabhi dikhenge jab global front par trade outlook ki volatility kam hogi. Trade tariffs se jo disturbance hui hai, usne investors ko risk se dur rehne par majboor kar diya hai. Iski wajah se traders abhi gold jaise safe options ki taraf ja rahe hain, ya phir dollar index ki taraf, aisa kehna hai Timothy Moe ka, jo ki chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist hain Goldman Sachs mein.
Dollar Index ki Girawat
Brokerage ke anusaar, dollar index downward trajectory par hai. Goldman Sachs ke kai long-term, fair-value models ke anusaar, dollar index 15% overvalued hai. Timothy Moe ne NDTV Profit ki Executive Editor Tamanna Inamdar se baat karte hue kaha ki US current administration ne publicly kaha hai ki woh chahte hain ki dollar weaker ho.
US-China Trade Talks
London se aayi news encouraging hai. Lekin, markets ko abhi tak koi substantial details nahi mili hai. US aur China trade talks mein jis direction mein ja rahe hain, woh April ki shuruat se better lag raha hai. Fir bhi, uncertainty bani hui hai. Bloomberg ki report ke anusaar, US aur China ke beech trade talks ka second day London mein conclude hua. Dono sides ek consensus par pahunche hain aur ek final framework ko dono deshon ke presidents se approval milna baki hai.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, aur Trade Representative Jamieson Greer US delegation ko lead kar rahe hain, jabki China ke Vice Premier Hi Lifeng Chinese delegation ko lead kar rahe hain.
India Par Nazar
Goldman Sachs ne India par marketweight rating maintain ki hai. Agriculture, consumption aur earnings growth mein recovery positive hai, aisa unka kehna hai. Goldman Sachs India mein calendar year 2025 mein 12% earning-per-share growth dekh raha hai. Moe ne kaha ki fundamentally, cheezein stable ho gayi hain aur constructive dikh rahi hain. India ki challenge yeh hai ki valuation high hai. MSCI India Index ka forward multiple 23.23 times price-to-earning ratio hai, jo ki 10-year PE se 1.4 times above hai. Isliye, investors Indian markets ke certain pockets par focus kar sakte hain.
US Economic Growth Mein Kami
Goldman Sachs estimate kar raha hai ki US mein economic growth fourth quarter year-on-year mein 1% tak gir jayegi, jabki second quarter mein strong run rate tha. Moe ne kaha ki pehle do quarters ke GDP numbers volatile hain aur real grasp karna hard hai.
Market watchers ke liye key debate hard data aur soft data ke beech ka tension hai. Soft data, jo expectations se affected hota hai, woh bahut significantly compress ho gaya, jo market participants ko trade outlook par clarity milne ke baad recover hone ki umeed hai. Goldman Sachs soft data mein do-third recovery project kar raha hai, jabki hard data mein deceleration likely continue rahega. Brokerage ki US portfolio strategy team ne paya ki markets ne hard data mein expected decline ko already factor in kar liya hai, aur soft data mein recovery ki umeed hai. Iski wajah se hi markets April lows se US mein aur kai regions mein bahut swiftly recover hue hain, Moe ne kaha.
Defence Stocks Par Focus
HAL, BEL, Mazagon Dockyards, yeh sabhi global tensions ke beech strong growth ke karan Antique ki top defence picks hain. Read more on Markets by NDTV Profit.
