Inflation ke Numbers: Good News?
Guys, ek mast update hai! India ki retail inflation aur bhi kam hone wali hai May mein. April mein toh yeh pichle 6 saal mein sabse kam thi, aur ab Bloomberg ke economists keh rahe hain ki yeh aur giregi. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation lagbhag 2.98% tak aa sakti hai.
April Mein Kya Hua Tha?
April mein inflation 3.16% thi, jo July 2019 ke baad sabse kam thi. Aur yeh toh RBI ke target 4% se bhi kam hai. Sabse zyada farak vegetable prices mein kami se pada hai.
Vegetable Prices ka Khel
Teresa John, jo Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities mein economist hain, unka kehna hai ki May mein vegetable prices thode se badhe hain (lagbhag 3% month-on-month), lekin cereals aur pulses ke prices kam hue hain. Unhone forecast kiya hai ki headline inflation 3% rahegi, aur food and beverage inflation 2.1% ke aas پاس rahegi.
Monsoon ka Impact
RBI ne Monetary Policy Committee meeting mein kaha tha ki agriculture ke liye achhi khabar hai, kyunki south-west monsoon normal se zyada hone ki sambhavna hai. Lekin, 1 June se 8 June tak cumulative rainfall normal se 25% kam thi, lekin 23 May se jab monsoon aaya, tab se yeh normal se 67% zyada hai.
Rahul Bajoria, jo BofA mein India economist hain, unka kehna hai ki monsoon rainfall ka food inflation par bahut asar padta hai, khaaskar perishable prices par. Food inflation core inflation se kam ho rahi hai, kyunki non-perishable prices ka cycle dheere dheere kam ho raha hai.
Core Inflation Mein Kya Chal Raha Hai?
Core inflation, jismein food aur fuel shaamil nahi hote, usme thodi si badhotri dikh rahi hai. April mein core inflation 4.22% thi, jo pichle mahine 4.2% thi. Nomura ka kehna hai ki gold prices badhne ki wajah se personal care CPI inflation mein izafa hua hai, jo core basket ka lagbhag 8% hai. Lekin, aur bhi core sub-categories mein pressure badh raha hai.
US Inflation ka Update
India CPI ke baad, US CPI data bhi release hoga, jisse tariffs aur Fed ke future actions ke baare mein aur pata chalega. World Bank ne India ki FY26 GDP growth forecast ko bhi 6.3% tak kam kar diya hai.
