The recently concluded Lok Sabha elections in Kerala were marked by several key takeaways that shed light on the political dynamics in the state. One significant aspect was the unprecedented number of visits by Prime Minister Narendra Modi—five times in just four months—a clear indication of the BJP’s strategic push to establish itself as a pan-India party. This marked a departure from Mr. Modi’s previous approach towards Kerala, where he had not made such concentrated efforts during prior Lok Sabha or Assembly elections.
Another notable aspect was the heightened political fervour exhibited by the two main rival parties—the Congress and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPI(M). This level of intensity is typically observed only during Assembly elections, suggesting the high stakes involved in these polls. However, despite the evident enthusiasm, the voter turnout was only 71.27%, significantly lower than the 77.84% recorded in the 2019 polls. This has left both parties cautiously awaiting the outcome.
During his campaign in the state, Prime Minister Modi deftly navigated the political rivalry between the Congress and the CPI(M), as well as their alleged appeasement politics. He also leveraged perceived anti-incumbency sentiments against the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) government. To consolidate his position, Modi made specific references to the bitter exchange between Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. While Mr. Gandhi alleged a CPI(M)-BJP nexus shielding Mr. Vijayan from Central agencies, the Chief Minister retaliated with indirect references to the ‘Pappu’ jibe.
Despite Prime Minister Modi’s anti-Muslim rhetoric at a rally in Rajasthan, both the Congress and the CPI(M) failed to effectively capitalize on it. Since the BJP-led government came to power at the Centre in 2014, the party has strategically attempted to make advances in Kerala. Through its campaign during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, it also seemed to be preparing the ground for the 2026 Assembly elections.
To consolidate its relationship with key Hindu communities, the BJP leadership has engaged with the leadership of the Nair Service Society and the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam. This move aims to secure the votes of two dominant Hindu communities—the Nairs and the Ezhavas/Thiyyas. Notably, unlike in the past, the BJP central leadership decided not to involve the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) during electioneering. This decision was likely made under the belief that the RSS’s heightened activism could mar the chances of its candidates in Thiruvananthapuram and Thrissur, namely Union Minister of State for Electronics and Information Technology Rajeev Chandrasekhar and actor-politician Suresh Gopi, respectively.
Simultaneously, the controversial movie ‘The Kerala Story’ was aired on the national broadcaster Doordarshan. It was aimed at reigniting the so-called ‘love jihad’ conspiracy theory propagated by Hindutva outfits and radical Christian groups. Soon afterwards, several dioceses of the Syro-Malabar Church screened the movie for students, fueling speculation about a possible connection between the Catholic Church and the BJP.
The BJP also made strategic moves, such as fielding Anil K. Antony, son of Congress Working Committee member A.K. Antony, in Pathanamthitta. During the polls, Delhi Lieutenant Governor V.K. Saxena visited Kerala to have an audience with the heads of the Syro Malabar Church, the Jacobite Syrian Orthodox Church, and the Malankara Orthodox Syrian Church. This sparked controversy, though he clarified that his visit was without any political motive.
The BJP also actively poached disgruntled leaders from the Congress and CPI(M) and tried to engineer defections from other parties. The admission of LDF convener and CPI(M) Central Committee member E.P. Jayarajan on polling day that he had met BJP Kerala in-charge Prakash Javadekar caused embarrassment to the CPI(M). These incidents highlight the BJP’s aggressive campaign tactics.
It is clear that the BJP intensified its campaign in Kerala this time. The party seems confident of increasing its vote share in nearly all the 16 out of 20 seats where it contested, banking on the Modi factor. However, it remains uncertain whether the BJP will be able to translate this support into electoral victories and secure seats in the state.
