Market Mein Tezi, Inflation Mein Kami: Kya Chal Raha Hai?
Aaj kal market mein kaafi ups and downs chal rahe hain. Trump ke tariff announcement ke baad Indian stock market ne Tuesday ko strong comeback kiya. Har sector green mein tha, jismein solid buying action dekhi gayi. Asia ke markets, including Japan, Australia, aur South Korea, ne bhi Wall Street ke tech-driven rally ke baad strong perform kiya. India ki retail inflation March mein 3.34% tak aa gayi, jo nearly six years mein sabse kam hai.
RBI Ne Kiya Rate Cut, Kya Matlab Hai?
Inflation kam hone ke saath, central bank ne last week repo rate cut kar diya. 9 April ko, India’s monetary policy committee ne is financial year ki pehli meeting ki. Rate cut expected tha, lekin MPC ne stance bhi change kar diya, “neutral” se “accommodative”. Yeh change, mostly symbolic hone ke saath, easier monetary policy ki taraf ishara karta hai. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra ne kaha, “Challenging global economic conditions mein, benign inflation aur moderate growth outlook demand karta hai ki MPC growth ko support karta rahe.”
Growth Outlook Mein Badlav
RBI ne fiscal 2026 GDP estimates ko 20 basis points se kam karke 6.5% kar diya. Moody’s ne bhi India ke growth projections ko 30 bps se kam karke current fiscal ke liye 6.1% kar diya.
Inflation Aur Liquidity: Badalte Scenario
March mein, consumer price indexed inflation 3.34% thi, jo 67-month low hai. RBI ka estimate hai ki saal ke liye inflation rate 4% rahegi, jo MPC ka target hai. System liquidity, jo pehle deficit mein thi, ab nearly Rs 1.7 lakh crore surplus mein hai. Accommodative stance ka matlab hai ki RBI current liquidity surplus se comfortable hai. Yeh surplus interest rates ko kam karne ke liye bhi important hai.
Global Divergence: Fed Holds, RBI Moves
RBI ne jaldi action liya, lekin US Federal Reserve rates par hold kar raha hai, potential inflation pressures ka हवाला dete hue. Trump ne China ko chhodkar jyadatar trading partners ke liye tariff measures par 90-day pause ki maang ki hai, aur US central bank se rate cut bhi chahta hai. Kya Trump Fed ko majboor karega? Ya Jerome Powell apni prudence par ade rahenge? Yeh dekhna hoga.
Aage Kya?
Yeh policy aane wale mahino mein market moves se lekar household budgets tak sab kuch shape kar sakti hai. HDFC Bank ne savings account par interest rate 25 bps se kam karke 2.75% kar diya hai. Bank ne 2011 se interest rate nahi badhaya hai, lekin past 14 years mein, rates ko 4% se current levels tak kam kiya hai.
