OPEC+ Ne Kiya Oil Production Badhane Ka Faisla
OPEC+ countries ne ek bada decision liya hai. Unhone oil production, yani tel ka utpadan, aur tezi se badhane ka plan banaya hai. Saudi Arabia ke lead mein, ye group market mein apni position strong karna chahta hai, khaaskar summer season mein jab demand zyada hoti hai. Is decision se tel ki prices par kya asar padega, chaliye dekhte hain.
Kitna Production Badhega?
Saudi Arabia aur uske partner countries ne decide kiya hai ki weh daily 548,000 barrels zyada tel produce karenge. Pehle, May, June aur July ke liye 411,000 barrels ka increase announce kiya gaya tha. Lekin ab, production badhane ki raftaar aur tez hogi. Iska matlab hai ki OPEC+ apne output cuts ko ek saal pehle hi khatam kar dega, jo pehle plan kiya gaya tha.
Kyon Badhaya Ja Raha Hai Production?
OPEC secretariat ne kaha hai ki global economy stable dikh rahi hai aur market fundamentals bhi strong hain. Oil inventories, yaani tel ka bhandaran, kam hai. Isliye, production badhana sahi decision hai. Unka manna hai ki abhi market mein tel ki demand acchi hai, jiska fayda uthana chahiye.
Aage Kya Hoga?
Agli meeting 3 August ko hogi, jismein OPEC+ September mein bhi lagbhag 548,000 barrels per day ka production increase consider karega. Agar aisa hota hai, toh 2023 mein band ki gayi 2.2 million barrels per day ki supply phir se shuru ho jayegi. Iske baad, group ke paas 1.66 million-barrel ka idle output bhi hai, jiske baare mein woh baad mein sochenge.
Market Par Kya Asar Padega?
Market experts ka kehna hai ki OPEC+ jo kar raha hai, usse oil prices par pressure aa sakta hai. Brent oil futures mein 2025 mein 8.5% ki kami aayi hai. Kyunki crude production badh raha hai. President Trump ki trade war ki wajah se bhi future demand par asar pad sakta hai.
Summer Mein Demand Tej
Filhaal, tel ki demand strong hai. US mein refineries zyada crude oil process kar rahi hain. Diesel jaise fuels ki prices bhi badh rahi hain. Isliye, OPEC+ is situation ka fayda uthana chahta hai.
Saudi Arabia Ki Strategy
Kuch experts ka ye bhi kehna hai ki Saudi Arabia market share badhana chahta hai. Weh apne over-producing members ko punish karna chahte hain aur US shale drillers se sales volume regain karna chahte hain.
Trump Par Asar
President Trump hamesha se chahte hain ki tel ki prices kam rahein, taaki US economy ko support mile. OPEC+ ke is decision se unhe khushi ho sakti hai.
Lekin Tension Bhi Hai
International Energy Agency ka kehna hai ki global oil inventories badh rahi hain. China mein consumption kam ho raha hai aur Americas mein production badh raha hai. JPMorgan Chase & Co. aur Goldman Sachs Group Inc. jaise Wall Street firms ka manna hai ki prices $60 per barrel ya usse bhi kam ho sakti hain.
Saudi Arabia Ki Problems
Saudi Arabia ko pehle se hi budget deficit ka samna karna pad raha hai. Unhe Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ke kai projects par kharcha kam karna pada hai. Russia bhi Ukraine ke saath war ki wajah se economic problems face kar raha hai.
Shale Industry Mein Dard
US shale executives keh rahe hain ki weh is saal kam wells drill karenge, kyunki tel ki prices kam hain aur Trump ke tariffs ko lekar uncertainty hai.
Aage Ka Raasta
Analyst Jorge Leon ka kehna hai ki OPEC+ ne market share strategy ki taraf shift kar liya hai. Ab dekhna ye hai ki kya weh next tier of 1.66 million barrels ko target karenge aur kya market mein itni demand hai ki woh ise absorb kar sake?
