OPEC+ Aur Unka Quota Drama
Aapko yaad hai OPEC+ ka compensation mechanism? Woh jo overproduction ke liye amends karne ke liye tha? Latest data ke hisab se, woh utna effective nahi raha jitna socha gaya tha.
Compensation Ka Golmaal
Jab Saudi Arabia aur uske partners ne do saal pehle ruke hue output ko revive karne ka announcement kiya tha, toh unhone kaha tha ki group ka “compensation mechanism” market ko stable rakhega. Matlab, jin members ne limits cross ki thi, woh extra cutbacks karenge. Lekin, OPEC ke Wednesday ke data se pata chalta hai ki yeh scheme utni successful nahi rahi. Overdue compensation cuts ka backlog badhkar 139 million barrels ho gaya hai, almost 9% ka increase!
Kazakhstan Ki Galti, Sabki Problem?
Iraq aur Russia ne thodi progress toh ki, lekin Kazakhstan ne quota violation mein koi kasar nahi chhodi. Unka backlog 40% se bhi zyada badh gaya! OPEC+ delegates ka kehna hai ki Astana ki yeh harkat hi woh reason hai jiske wajah se last month production itni jaldi badhaya gaya. Riyadh lower oil prices ke through cheaters ko discipline karna chahta hai.
Oil Prices Mein Giravat: Kiski Zimmedari?
Crude futures mein kaafi giravat dekhi gayi hai. OPEC+ ke decision aur President Donald Trump ke trade war ne Brent ko $60 a barrel ke niche dhakel diya, jo ki four-year low hai. Magar, history se pata chalta hai ki low prices se Kazakhstan ya Iraq jaise countries ko punish karna aasan nahi hai.
Kazakhstan Aur Iraq Ki Kahani
Market mein giravat se in countries ko nuksan toh hoga, kyunki prices IMF ke estimated government spending levels se kaafi niche aa gaye hain. Astana ke liye yeh figure $115 per barrel hai, aur Baghdad ke liye $92. Lekin, aur bhi factors hain jo inke behavior ko influence karte hain.
Kazakhstan mein international oil companies Tengiz field jaise long-term projects mein production capacity badha rahi hain. Inke contracts mein cutbacks force karne ka scope limited hai. Sources ke mutabik, Kazakhstan ne apne corporate partners se baat toh ki hai, lekin cutbacks ke liye koi serious effort nahi kiya hai.
Iraq ka track record bhi compensation ke mamle mein achcha nahi raha hai. Sanctions aur conflict ke baad, woh apni economy aur trade relationships banane mein laga hua hai, isliye output limits se khush nahi hai.
Aage Kya?
Dekhna yeh hai ki OPEC+ apne compensation mechanism ko kaise effective banata hai aur quota violators ko kaise control karta hai. Oil market ki stability issi par depend karti hai.
