Petronet LNG: Kya Hai Naya Target Price?
Motilal Oswal ne Petronet LNG ke share ko ‘Buy’ rating di hai, jiska target price Rs 410/share rakha gaya hai. Unka kehna hai ki current market price par, Petronet LNG ek unrealistic scenario price kar raha hai, jismein FY28 mein Dahej aur Kochi terminals par tariff mein 20% ki kami aur uske baad koi tariff hike nahi hai. Chaliye, isko aur detail mein dekhte hain.
Market Share ki Race Mein Kya Chal Raha Hai?
Analysts ka kehna hai ki market mein yeh narrative chal raha hai ki competing terminals Petronet LNG se market share chheen rahe hain. Lekin, hakikat yeh hai ki competitor terminals par utilization abhi bhi 14-43% par hi hai. Petronet LNG ka scale, historical capex, aur connectivity advantages abhi bhi strong hain.
Tariff Cut se Industry Par Kya Asar Hoga?
Agar FY28 mein Dahej mein tariff mein sharp cut hota hai, toh isse poore industry par pressure pad sakta hai. Aisa isliye kyunki competing terminals lagbhag 2x capital cost par bane hain (Dahej capex/mmtpa = ~Rs 5 billion vs ~Rs 9-11 billion for competitors). Isse Dahej terminal aur bhi attractive ho jayega, khaaskar jab iski expanded capacity online aa jayegi.
Valuations: Kya Yeh Rock Bottom Hai?
9.7x FY27 P/E aur 4% dividend yield par, valuations absolute rock bottom levels par hain. Isliye, analysts ka manna hai ki yeh share kharidne ka achha mauka hai.
DCF Analysis: Target Price Kaise Calculate Hua?
Analysts ne DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) analysis ka use kiya hai, jismein WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) 11.2% hai. Unhone FY28 mein Dahej aur Kochi mein 10% tariff cut, uske baad 4% escalation, 2% terminal growth, aur 11.2% WACC assume kiya hai. Isse target price Rs 410/share nikal kar aata hai. Petchem venture ke liye poora capex build kiya gaya hai, lekin ise sirf 0.5x equity par value kiya gaya hai.
