For fourteen harrowing years, Bashar al-Assad’s regime inflicted a campaign of unspeakable brutality upon the Syrian people. His reign was characterized by a ruthless suppression of dissent, employing mass killings and terror tactics as instruments of control. The regime’s chilling mantra, ‘Assad or we burn the country,’ reflected a commitment to self-preservation at any cost. This resulted in a devastating human toll: at least 500,000 Syrians perished, with over 130,000 more vanishing into a horrific system of detention, torture, and execution, utilizing industrial crematoriums and ‘iron presses’ for the efficient disposal of bodies. Between 2012 and 2016, 82,000 barrel bombs were indiscriminately unleashed on Syrian urban areas, alongside nearly 340 verified chemical weapons attacks targeting civilian populations. Sunni Muslim villages were subjected to massacres, often employing hammers and axes to maximize terror. The recent overthrow of Assad, while undeniably a cause for relief, presents an immense challenge in transitioning this euphoria into lasting stability.
President Biden’s declaration that Assad’s regime had finally fallen, while seemingly celebratory, highlights a past miscalculation. Just days before the regime’s collapse, the Biden administration considered easing sanctions on Assad’s regime, a proposal deemed morally reprehensible by many. This underscores a long-held misconception: the belief that the conflict was frozen, Assad had won, and his survival was inevitable. This misjudgment stemmed from a profound misunderstanding of the Syrian situation, a weariness concerning the protracted conflict, and a desire to move past the issue. The first Trump administration shifted the focus from Assad’s removal to achieving ‘behavioral change,’ while under Biden, Syria effectively vanished from the national agenda.
Despite the apparent standstill since 2020, the situation in Syria was steadily deteriorating. With Russian support, Assad’s regime launched a devastating suicide drone campaign in late June 2024 against northwestern Syria, deploying 467 drones within five months. Indiscriminate artillery shelling escalated monthly throughout the summer. The economic and humanitarian crises spiraled to unprecedented levels, even as international aid sharply declined. The Syrian people’s suffering intensified as Assad refused to constructively engage with Arab nations who sought to normalize relations in 2023. His rejection of Turkey’s normalization offer in 2024 further exacerbated the situation, creating the conditions for the regime’s swift downfall.
International attention, when it did exist, largely focused on the symptoms of the crisis—ISIS and the refugee crisis—rather than the root cause: Assad’s regime. While combating ISIS was a necessary endeavor, the reality is Assad’s actions—terrorism, displacement, multiple wars—were the primary destabilizing factors. At least 90% of civilian deaths since 2011 are attributed to Assad’s regime and its Russian and Iranian allies, dwarfing the 2% attributed to ISIS. This stark reality helps explain the regime’s dramatic and rapid collapse. Assad’s regime had not won; the Syrian people had reached a breaking point.
The regime’s internal decay was evident for years, plagued by internal divisions and the infiltration of organized crime. In 2024, gunmen in previously opposition-controlled regions turned against the regime, eroding its authority. Minority groups joined calls for Assad’s downfall, and the armed opposition in the northwest geared up for a fight. These developments, though visible, were underestimated by policymakers, who failed to recognize Assad’s weakening vulnerability. The resulting dramatic developments in Syria caught the U.S. and its allies off guard. With the Biden administration’s final weeks in office, the response has been limited. Collaboration with regional allies is crucial to shape the future of Syria, especially in protecting US-backed forces in the northeast facing unprecedented pressure. The situation risks a US troop withdrawal from Syria, which would endanger the ongoing campaign against ISIS and the security of prisons and camps holding over 50,000 individuals linked to the terrorist group.
The incoming Trump administration’s stance remains highly uncertain, given Trump’s past disinterest in Syria. However, given the profound geopolitical shifts and the blow dealt to Iran, such disengagement would be a grave miscalculation. The complex situation demands a nuanced and sustained international response.
