Tata Communications ka Naya Target: Data Revenue Double Karne mein Deri
Tata Communications ne apne data revenue ko Rs 280 billion tak double karne ka target ek saal aage badha diya hai. Ab yeh FY28 tak hoga. Pehle FY23-27 tak ~19% CAGR ka target tha, lekin ab yeh ~13% CAGR hoga. Brokerage firms ka kehna hai ki naya revenue goal zyada credible hai, lekin phir bhi thoda optimistic aur unke estimate (~8.5% CAGR ya FY28 tak Rs 250 billion) se zyada hai.
Motilal Oswal ki Report Kya Kehti Hai?
Motilal Oswal ki report ke hisab se, digital revenue mein FY25-28 tak ~12% CAGR ki umeed hai. Unka yeh bhi kehna hai ki FY28 tak Tata Communications Ltd. ke data revenue mein digital ka hissa ~51% ho jayega (Q4 FY25 mein ~48% tha). Digital revenue mein tezi aana bahut zaruri hai. Unke earnings estimates abhi bhi same hai. Unhe lagta hai ki Tata Communications ko FY28 mein Rs 280 billion ka data revenue target achieve karne ke liye aur acquisitions karne padenge. Overall, unhone FY25-28 mein ~9% data revenue CAGR build kiya hai, jisse FY28 tak data revenue Rs 250 billion tak pahunch jayega.
EBITDA Margin aur Valuation
Management ko umeed hai ki medium term mein 23-25% EBITDA range mein vapas aa jayenge, lekin Motilal Oswal ko lagta hai ki margin mein dheere-dheere sudhar hoga aur FY28 tak yeh ~22% tak pahunch jayega. Unhone Tata Communications ke data business ko nine times June27E EV/Ebitda aur voice aur other businesses ko 5X EV/Ebitda ascribe kiya hai. Tata Communications ke STT data centers mein 26% stake ko Rs 30 billion (ya Rs 104/share) ka valuation diya hai. Unka SoTP-based target price Rs 1,660 par unchanged hai.
Stock ka Performance aur Rating
Significant time correction (2023 analyst meet se 5% return) ke baad, stock abhi reasonable 11.3x one-year forward EV/Ebitda (~LT average se ~10% premium) par trade kar raha hai. Unhone apni Neutral rating maintain ki hai, kyunki woh data revenue mein tezi aur margin expansion ka wait kar rahe hain.