Trump ke tariffs: Global economy mein hulchul?
Donald Trump ke tariffs ko lekar duniya bhar ki economy mein tension bani hui hai. Pichle teen mahino se uncertainty ka mahaul hai, aur ab US President ka deadline aa gaya hai. Dekhte hain, isse kya naye mod aate hain.
Kya hai poora maamla?
Basically, Trump chahte hain ki US trade deficits ko kam karein aur manufacturing ko phir se badhawa dein. Iske liye woh tariffs ka istemal kar rahe hain. Lekin, isse World Trade Organization (WTO) ke rules par asar pad raha hai, jo decades se commerce ko promote kar rahe hain.
Treasury par kya asar hoga?
Tarrifs lagane se jo paisa aayega, woh Treasury mein jayega. Investors pareshan hain ki nation ka debt kitna sustainable hai. Congress ne $3.4 trillion ka tax cut aur spending package seal kiya hai, jiske baad yeh aur bhi important ho gaya hai.
Trump ne kaha hai ki, “The money will start to come into the United States on Aug. 1.”
Negotiators ki race
July 9 deadline se pehle negotiators trade pacts banane mein lage hue hain. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ne trade ko Trump ke agenda ka ek important pillar bataya hai. Unke agenda mein tax cuts aur deregulation bhi shamil hain, jisse investment, job growth aur innovation ko badhawa milega.
Economy par current asar
Abhi tak toh US economy thik chal rahi hai. Hiring bhi healthy hai aur inflation bhi control mein hai. Lekin Federal Reserve tariffs ko lekar chintit hai, aur woh dekhna chahta hai ki iska output par kya asar hota hai.
Markets mein uncertainty
Trump ke trade policy ke changes se markets mein uncertainty badh gayi hai. Companies ko production, inventories, hiring, inflation aur consumer demand par asar ka andaza lagana mushkil ho raha hai. Tarrifs kab aayenge aur kab jayenge, iska koi thikana nahi hai.
Trump ka favorite word: “Tariffs”
Trump ko tariffs bahut pasand hai. Lekin unhe shayad yeh nahi pata ki inka asar American importers par padta hai. Unhe tighter profit margins se deal karna hota hai aur consumers par prices badhane padte hain.
Bloomberg Economics ka estimate hai ki agar reciprocal tariffs ko July 9 tak badhaya gaya toh US imports par average duties 20% tak badh sakte hain, jo Trump ke aane se pehle 3% the. Isse US outlook par bahut risk badh jayega.
Aage kya hoga?
Aane wale week mein Fed ke minutes, Australia mein rate cut aur China se UK tak ke economic growth numbers par sabki nazar rahegi. BRICS leaders ka summit bhi Sunday se shuru ho raha hai.
