Trumpcession: Kya America ko zukhaam lagne wala hai?
Reports ke mutaabik, America ki economy ke chhakke chhut rahe hain, aur iska asar poori duniya par pad sakta hai. Baat yeh hai ki agar America ki economy ko zukhaam lagta hai, toh baaki duniya ko bhi bukhar aa sakta hai. Is baar recession ki baat kuch alag hai kyunki geopolitical aur geoeconomic mamle bhi garam hain, jiska sabse bada reason hai President Donald Trump ka unconventional style. Trump ji ka kehna hai ki woh recession ki bhavishyavani toh nahi karenge, lekin agar aisa hota bhi hai toh yeh America ke liye “achha” price hoga, unke revolutionary changes ke liye.
Big Tech Bhi Pareshan?
Elon Musk, jo ki Trump ke bade supporter hain, unki daulat mein kaafi bada nuksan hua hai, kareeb $29 billion ek hi din mein! Aur yeh sab recession ke dar ki wajah se. Big Tech ke kai bade log, jinhone Trump ke inauguration ceremony mein hissa liya tha, woh bhi soch mein pad gaye honge ki kya unhone galat daav khela?
Asli Situation Kuch Aur Hai
America ka federal debt badh raha hai, lekin yeh itni badi problem nahi hai jitna bataya ja raha hai. Haalanki, 2024 ke last quarter mein debt-to-GDP ratio 121.9% tak pahunch gaya tha, lekin ghabraane ki zaroorat nahi hai. COVID aur 2008 ke financial crisis ko chhodkar, America ka federal deficit pichle chaar decades mein steadily badh raha hai, lekin dhire-dhire.
MAGA Mission: Sapna Ya Haqeeqat?
Trump chahte hain ki America manufacturing mein phir se number one ban jaaye aur tariff badhakar government revenue bhi badhaye. Lekin America mein unemployment rate 4% hai, jo ki kaafi kam hai. Aur services sector mein kareeb 80% jobs hain. Toh manufacturing jobs wapas laana mushkil lag raha hai, woh bhi technology ke is daur mein.
Kya Hoga Agar Sirf Nuksan Hua, Aur Kuch Nahi Mila?
Agar recession aata hai toh India par jyada asar nahi hoga, lekin Trump ka yeh kehna ki America ko apni “greatness” wapas laane ke liye kuch “price” dena padega, yeh baat thodi chintajanak hai. Trump ji, jo ki pehle real-estate dealmaker the, woh shayad international trade mein kuch bade saude karke sabit karna chahenge ki woh successful hain. Agar aisa hota hai, toh economy mein sudhaar aa sakta hai. Lekin agar aisa nahi hua, toh America ke economic future par sankat aa sakta hai. Dekhna yeh hoga ki aam American par iska kya asar padta hai, inflation badhega ya income kam hogi. Aur yeh bhi dekhna hoga ki woh billionaires, jinhe financial nuksan hua hai, woh kya sochte hain Trump ke is risky game ke baare mein.
