The unfolding geopolitical landscape in the Middle East has witnessed a significant development: the United States and the United Arab Emirates are reportedly exploring the possibility of lifting crippling sanctions against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. This unprecedented move, according to five sources familiar with the matter, hinges on Assad severing ties with Iran and halting the flow of weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
These discussions, which intensified in recent months, are fueled by several factors. The looming December 20th expiration of sweeping U.S. sanctions on Syria is a key catalyst. Furthermore, Israel’s ongoing campaign to dismantle Iran’s regional network – encompassing Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and Iranian assets within Syria – has created a strategic opening for this diplomatic initiative. The timing is particularly noteworthy, occurring before a significant rebel offensive in Aleppo, highlighting Assad’s vulnerability and the potential for exploiting weaknesses in his alliance with Iran.
The initiative aims to drive a wedge between Assad and Iran, a crucial ally who helped Assad regain control over large swathes of Syria during the devastating civil war that erupted in 2011. However, the recent visit by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi to Syria and a phone call between UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Assad indicate the challenges ahead. Should Assad seek Iranian support for a counter-offensive, it could significantly complicate efforts to fracture this alliance.
Reuters’ investigation, based on interviews with US officials, Syrian and Lebanese interlocutors, and foreign diplomats, reveals that both the US and UAE see a unique opportunity. While Lebanese media have reported Israeli suggestions for sanctions relief, the US-UAE initiative represents a separate and previously unreported diplomatic track. The UAE’s active role in rehabilitating Assad’s image within the Arab world, culminating in Assad’s 2022 visit – his first to an Arab country since the war began – underscores their ambition to normalize relations and forge economic ties with Syria. However, US sanctions have been a significant impediment to these efforts.
The initiative has not gone unnoticed by Iran. A senior regional diplomat briefed by Tehran confirmed Iran’s awareness of these “behind-the-scenes efforts” by Arab nations, linking them to potential sanctions relief offers from Washington. The implications are far-reaching, as Hezbollah’s withdrawal of fighters from northern Syria, cited by rebels as a factor in their recent Aleppo offensive, highlights the shifting dynamics on the ground. A US source familiar with the matter emphasized the UAE’s keen interest in financing Syria’s reconstruction and Assad’s weakened position following Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah. The potential for sanctions relief, coupled with Israel’s actions, presents a “carrot-and-stick” approach to weaken the Assad-Iran-Hezbollah alliance.
The Caesar Act, enacted in 2019, imposed stringent sanctions across Syrian business sectors, impacting anyone dealing with Syria, regardless of nationality, and those engaging with Russian and Iranian entities. These sanctions, viewed by Assad as economic warfare, are slated to expire on December 20th unless renewed by US lawmakers. Part of the US-UAE discussions revolves around allowing these sanctions to expire without renewal, though this faces opposition, as evidenced by the advocacy efforts of groups like Citizens for a Secure and Safe America, working to extend the sanctions with perceived bipartisan support.
Beyond the US-UAE initiative, other incentives are reportedly on the table. A foreign diplomat revealed that both the UAE and Saudi Arabia have offered financial incentives to Assad to distance himself from Iran, suggesting coordination with Washington. The issue was also discussed during Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s recent visit to the UAE. Additionally, the UAE has pledged funds for Syrian infrastructure reconstruction as further leverage.
However, Iran has warned Assad against distancing himself. A message from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, conveyed via senior advisor Ali Larijani, served as a stark reminder to Assad of Iran’s enduring support. Meanwhile, Assad’s largely passive stance during the recent Gaza conflict – avoiding direct engagement despite Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Syria – reflects a complex calculation to mitigate further Israeli retaliation. Israel, however, has made it clear that its vigilance continues, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu underscoring that Israel remains committed to thwarting attempts by Iran, Hezbollah, and the Syrian army to arm Lebanon. This high-stakes diplomatic game, with its intricate web of alliances and competing interests, promises to shape the future of Syria and the wider Middle East for years to come.
