The United States remains convinced that Iran has not yet made the decision to build nuclear weapons, even in the wake of recent strategic setbacks for Tehran. This assessment, according to two US officials who spoke to Reuters, comes despite Israel’s successful targeting of Hezbollah leaders and two largely unsuccessful attempts by Iran to attack Israel. The US intelligence community’s position was further underscored by CIA Director William Burns earlier this week, who stated that the US had not observed any evidence of a change in Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s 2003 decision to suspend its nuclear weapons program.
“We assess that the Supreme Leader has not made a decision to resume the nuclear weapons program that Iran suspended in 2003,” said a spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). This assessment could shed light on the US’s staunch opposition to any potential Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in retaliation for a recent ballistic missile attack. Following the attack, President Joe Biden declared his opposition to an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites, but did not elaborate on his rationale. His remarks drew sharp criticism from Republicans, including former President Donald Trump.
US officials have long acknowledged the potential drawbacks of attempting to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Such an action could merely delay Iran’s efforts to develop a nuclear bomb, and might even strengthen Tehran’s resolve to pursue it. “We’re all watching this space very carefully,” a Biden administration official noted.
While Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment, Tehran has consistently denied ever having a nuclear weapons program.
In recent weeks, Israel’s military has dealt significant blows to Hezbollah, the most powerful member of the Iran-backed network known as the Axis of Resistance. These setbacks include the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike last month. The weakening of this key Iranian ally has sparked speculation among experts that Tehran might restart its efforts to acquire a nuclear bomb for self-defense. Beth Sanner, a former US deputy director of national intelligence, believes the risk of Khamenei reversing his 2003 religious decree against nuclear weapons is “higher now than it has been”. She warns that if Israel were to strike nuclear facilities, Tehran might well move ahead with building a nuclear weapon. However, even this would take considerable time. “They can’t get a weapon in a day. It will take months and months and months,” Sanner emphasized.
Iran currently enriches uranium to up to 60 per cent fissile purity at two sites, nearing the 90 per cent threshold of weapons-grade purity. Theoretically, Iran has enough material enriched to this level, if further enriched, for almost four bombs, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN nuclear watchdog. This expansion in Iran’s enrichment program has significantly reduced its “breakout time” – the time needed to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb – to “a week or a little more,” according to Burns. This represents a sharp decrease from the more than a year timeframe outlined in the 2015 nuclear deal, from which Trump withdrew the US in 2018. While having enough material to construct a bomb, the actual process of building the device would take longer. The exact duration is less clear and subject to ongoing debate.
Israel has yet to reveal its specific targets in retaliation for Iran’s recent attack with over 180 ballistic missiles, many of which were intercepted by Israeli air defenses and the US military. Behind closed doors, the United States has been urging Israel to carefully calibrate its response to avoid triggering a broader war in the Middle East. Publicly, Biden has voiced his opposition to a nuclear attack and expressed concerns about a strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure. Israel, however, views Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat.
The conflicts in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, along with Iran-backed groups in Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen, have become central campaign issues ahead of the November 5 presidential election. Both Trump and his Democratic challenger, Vice President Kamala Harris, are positioning themselves as staunch supporters of Israel. At a campaign event last week, Trump mocked Biden for opposing an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, saying: “That’s the thing you wanna hit, right?”
Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence officer and government official, believes Iran has room to maneuver and compensate for setbacks dealt to its proxies and missile forces without resorting to developing a nuclear warhead. “The Iranians have to recalculate what’s next. I don’t think at this point they will rush to either develop or boost the (nuclear) program toward military capacity,” he said. “They will look around to find what maneuvering space they can move around in”.
