The United States is facing a looming antimony shortage, a critical metal for military applications, as China, the primary supplier, is set to restrict its exports starting September 15. This move could significantly impact US defense capabilities, as antimony is essential for over 300 types of munitions.
According to a research note from ROTH Capital Partners analyst Mike Niehuser, Perpetua Resources Corp.’s Stibnite gold project in Idaho could emerge as the sole domestic source of antimony for the US. The project, expected to begin production in 2028, holds enough antimony reserves to potentially cover half of the US’s domestic consumption for six years.
The US’s reliance on China for antimony has been a growing concern. Last year, the US consumed 22,000 tons of antimony, while its national stockpile only contained 1,100 tons. China, which controls about 32% of global antimony reserves and 48% of mine production, has cited national security and non-proliferation obligations as the reasons for the export restrictions. However, analysts believe this move is strategically aimed at limiting US capabilities in ongoing conflicts.
While the US is seeking alternative sources of antimony, processing and refining remain major bottlenecks. Tajikistan and Australia, two US-friendly countries with substantial antimony reserves, rely heavily on China for processing their concentrates.
Perpetua’s Stibnite project, with its vast reserves, could alleviate the antimony shortage and ensure the US’s access to this critical metal. The analyst believes that the importance of antimony to national defense should be a top priority for the US government, particularly given the potential for rising prices due to the restricted supply.
ROTH Capital Partners has reiterated its 12-month target price of US$10 per share on Perpetua Resources Corp., reflecting a potential 12.4% upside from the current share price. The firm maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the company, highlighting the potential of the Stibnite project to address the US’s antimony needs and bolster its national security.
