The upcoming 2024 US presidential election could have a profound impact on the price of Bitcoin, according to a recent report from Bernstein. The report paints two vastly different scenarios depending on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris emerges victorious.
If Trump wins, Bitcoin could soar to new heights, potentially reaching $80,000 to $90,000 by the end of 2024, the report predicts. Bernstein analysts label Bitcoin a “Trump trade,” citing his vocal support for cryptocurrencies and his pledge to make the US “the bitcoin and crypto capital of the world.”
However, a Harris win could see Bitcoin retreat to the $30,000 to $40,000 range, levels last seen when spot Bitcoin ETFs were introduced. The analysts note that Harris has not publicly addressed crypto in her speeches or policy statements, leaving the industry uncertain about her stance.
Current prediction markets show Trump leading Harris by a narrow margin, with a 52% chance of victory compared to Harris’ 47%. Nevertheless, the analysts caution that predicting election outcomes remains a complex and often inaccurate exercise.
The authors of the report, Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia, emphasize that while the crypto industry has attempted to build relationships with both political sides, it has received more positive signals from the Trump camp. They suggest that a crypto-friendly election outcome and a favorable regulatory environment are not currently reflected in the market pricing.
The report points to the challenging regulatory environment faced by crypto in recent years. Actions taken against major companies like Coinbase and Uniswap have eroded trust and fueled partisan debates around the industry. Bernstein has previously made bold long-term price predictions for Bitcoin, including $200,000 by the end of 2025 and $1 million by the end of 2033.
As the election draws closer, the crypto community will be closely watching to see how political developments shape the future of digital assets. The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly discussed at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on November 19.
