In recent years, comets have graced our skies, making headlines and captivating the public’s imagination. The ‘Green Comet’ of 2023 and the ‘Devil’s Comet’ of 2023 have sparked excitement and intrigue. However, these celestial visitors have often been elusive, challenging to spot for those without access to dark skies or specialized equipment.
The upcoming Comet Tsuchinshan–ATLAS, discovered in February 2023, holds the potential to be a different story. As it approaches the sun in September 2024, and then Earth in October, calculations suggest it may brighten to second or even first magnitude, making it visible to the naked eye. The comet’s proximity to Earth and its position relative to the sun raise hopes for a stunning display in the western evening sky.
However, comets are notoriously unpredictable. Those originating from the Oort cloud, like Tsuchinshan–ATLAS, can experience sudden brightening followed by disappointing fades. The comet’s behavior as it crosses the orbit of Jupiter in late July will be a crucial indicator of its potential for a grand performance.
While the Northern Hemisphere may not have the best vantage point to observe Tsuchinshan–ATLAS this summer, those in the Southern Hemisphere will have an opportunity to track its progress in the morning sky before sunrise. Reports from these regions will provide valuable insights into the comet’s behavior and whether it is on track to become a celestial spectacle.
The geometry of the comet’s orbit and its position relative to the sun and Earth could result in a phenomenon known as ‘forward scattering of sunlight.’ If the comet is sufficiently dusty, this scattering can dramatically enhance its brightness, as was the case with the Great Comet of 2007 and Comet Skjellerup–Maristany of 1927.
Calculations indicate that Tsuchinshan–ATLAS could rival Venus in brightness around October 8, 2024, but its proximity to the sun may limit its visibility. As the comet sweeps northward in the following days, it should become more favorably positioned for viewing in the western sky by mid-October.
Despite the excitement surrounding Tsuchinshan–ATLAS, it is essential to remember that comets are unpredictable. Some comets have promised great shows but failed to deliver, while others have exceeded expectations. As the legendary comet expert Dr. Fred Whipple once said, ‘If you must bet, bet on a horse, not a comet!’
Nonetheless, astronomers and sky enthusiasts alike will be eagerly monitoring the progress of Comet Tsuchinshan–ATLAS, hoping that it will fulfill its potential and become a celestial highlight of 2024. Stay tuned for future updates as the comet approaches its closest encounters with the sun and Earth.
