The 2024 US election is shaping up to be a close race, with several key battleground states poised to determine the outcome. Republican pollster Mitchell Brown has made a bold prediction, forecasting a shift in the electoral landscape not seen since 1988. Brown believes that neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris will manage to secure victories in all three of the critical states: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
While Brown anticipates a strong showing for Trump in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, he asserts that it’s unlikely for any candidate to sweep all three of the key states. In 2016, Trump won all three, but in 2020, Joe Biden claimed victory in them. These states have historically played a pivotal role in presidential elections, with the winner often depending on their performance in these crucial areas.
Wisconsin, in particular, has been a focal point in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, with a mere 20,000 votes separating the victors each time. Analysts point to the potential influence of third-party candidates in marginal states like Wisconsin, where they could significantly impact the outcome by drawing votes away from the dominant two parties. Trump himself has underscored the state’s importance, stating, “If we win Wisconsin, we win the whole thing.” The summer Republican National Convention taking place in Milwaukee further highlights the state’s strategic value in the electoral landscape.
Pennsylvania also played a crucial role in Joe Biden’s 2020 victory, helping him secure the presidency and reclaim the “blue wall.” Historically, Democratic candidates have enjoyed considerable success in the state, until Donald Trump’s win in 2016. Winning these states has been crucial for presidential candidates, with the exception of Al Gore, who won them but ultimately lost to George W. Bush.
Brown emphasized his outlook on Thursday, stating, “What I see is that neither candidate will win all three states. If Trump secures even one, he wins the election. I still think Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the most likely to go for Trump, but if turnout is high and we see a repeat of previous trends, Trump could take all three, leaving Kamala with none.” The potential shift in voter sentiment in these key states, as outlined by Brown, introduces a significant level of uncertainty into the 2024 race, making it a highly unpredictable contest.