A study involving 187 global infectious disease experts from 57 countries has revealed that influenza, a common virus that causes flu, is perceived as the top pathogen of concern when it comes to pandemic risk. This perception aligns with the findings of the World Health Organization’s Research and Development Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics.
According to the survey, 57% of experts ranked influenza as the primary pandemic threat, while 21% identified Disease X, a hypothetical pathogen representing an unknown but potentially severe disease, as having the highest pandemic potential.
SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, was ranked as the third most concerning pathogen, with 8% of experts considering it the primary threat. The original SARS-CoV virus, responsible for the 2002-03 outbreak, received less attention, with only 2% of respondents voting it as the top concern.
Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) and Ebola viruses jointly occupied the fifth spot, each receiving 1.6% of votes for the top position. Pathogens like Nipah virus, henipavirus, and Rift Valley fever virus were deemed least likely to cause a pandemic according to the experts’ perception.
Dr. Jon Salmanton-Garcia, lead author of the study from the University of Cologne, Germany, summarized the findings: “The study revealed that influenza, Disease X, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and the Ebola virus are the most worrisome pathogens concerning their pandemic potential. These pathogens are characterized by their transmissibility through respiratory droplets and a history of previous epidemic or pandemic outbreaks.”
Despite the threat posed by influenza, Dr. Salmanton-Garcia emphasized that the world is now better prepared for a global pandemic after the experiences gained during the COVID-19 pandemic. Measures such as social distancing, hand cleaning, face masks, and vaccination have been implemented and refined, while institutions have also improved their preparedness and surveillance capabilities.
