In Monday’s series opener between the Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals, Brandon Pfaadt will face off against Lance Lynn. Despite Lynn’s superior 2.18 ERA to Pfaadt’s 5.32, Pfaadt has shown signs of improvement that indicate he could turn things around. His strong Pitching+ and improving peripherals suggest he should perform better than his current ERA. Lynn, on the other hand, has benefited from a low BABIP and a high strand rate, which are unlikely to continue.
The Diamondbacks also have an edge offensively with a higher wRC+, better plate discipline, and a more potent xSLG. Defensively, the Diamondbacks were one of the best teams in the league last season and are expected to be better than the Cardinals in that regard in 2023. With Arizona holding several advantages not reflected in the current betting prices, the Diamondbacks offer value on the moneyline.
