Bitcoin’s recent halving event has sparked analysis from Ark Invest on its potential impact. The halving, which occurs roughly every four years, reduces the reward for mining a block by half. This has brought Bitcoin’s supply growth below that of gold, estimated at 1.7% in 2023.
Ark Invest’s analysis emphasizes Bitcoin’s predictable monetary policy and scarcity. The analyst notes that, unlike sovereign currencies whose supply growth can be adjusted at will, Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million. This predetermined schedule limits inflation and ensures the scarcity of the asset.
Historically, halving events have been followed by significant price appreciation for Bitcoin. In the 12 months following the previous three halvings, Bitcoin’s price increased by an average of 3,108%. Ark Invest suggests that this pattern could repeat itself, potentially leading to a rally in the coming months.
Despite recent market volatility, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains bullish. Ark Invest predicts that Bitcoin could more than double in value to $150,000 by year-end. This optimistic outlook is based on Bitcoin’s increasing scarcity and its potential as a digital gold, a safe-haven asset in times of economic uncertainty.
