Meteorologists have issued warnings that a perilous wildfire season is on the horizon for the United States in 2024, potentially resulting in smoky skies and hazardous air quality conditions. According to AccuWeather’s 2024 US Wildfire Forecast, smoke originating from wildfires in Canada could significantly impact air quality in the northern US, echoing the situation observed last year. While forecasters anticipate a lower number of wildfires compared to 2022 and historical averages, any fires that erupt within the US could prompt evacuations and pose hazardous smoke conditions. Experts predict that between 35,000 and 50,000 wildfires will occur in the US during 2024, potentially scorching 4 million to 6 million acres of land. The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) reports that over 7 million acres were consumed by wildfires in both 2021 and 2022. AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok stated, “As of early April, approximately 1.8 million acres have already burned, significantly surpassing last year’s pace. This is largely attributed to the Smokehouse Creek Fire that ravaged Texas and Oklahoma.” Pastelok further noted, “Despite the current elevated burn rate, our forecast still projects a below-historical average number of fires and acreage burned this year. Drought coverage across the United States is currently below historical averages, especially compared to recent years.” Pastelok explained that while the US may experience fewer wildfires this year, he anticipates a near to above-historical average number of fires in Canada due to the region’s limited snowfall during the past winter. As a result, he emphasized that wildfire smoke from Canada could once again lead to hazy skies and hazardous air quality for millions of Americans residing in northern and eastern states in the coming months. Areas within the US that are likely to be most affected include the High Plains, the Midwest, and the western Great Lakes region. Drought conditions in these regions can foster favorable conditions for wildfires to ignite and spread rapidly. Pastelok elaborated, “As we progress into mid to late summer, the north-central Plains and the interior Northwest are at an increased risk of dry thunderstorms, which can serve as triggers for wildfires.” He further cautioned, “The longer the dry season persists in the Southwest, the more time ongoing fires have to burn. We may encounter an extended fire season in the Southwest, potentially leading to larger fires in that area.” Additionally, Pastelok highlighted that the transition from an El Niño pattern this past winter to a La Niña pattern by late summer could impact wildfires in California. He explained, “La Niña typically reduces the frequency of tropical activity in the eastern Pacific. Last year, Hurricane Hilary provided significant moisture to California in August, interrupting the dry season. With a La Niña pattern, this is less likely to occur, potentially extending the dry season.” Pastelok also mentioned the possibility of an earlier start to the wildfire season. He stated, “If prolonged periods of heat and dryness occur in May and June, the risk of wildfires may escalate earlier in the summer, rapidly increasing into the fall for more substantial fires. The combination of the 2023 and 2024 wet seasons will contribute to abundant growth of new fuel sources for wildfires.” Among the states facing a heightened risk of significant wildfires this year are Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
2024 US Wildfire Season: Expect Smoky Skies and Hazardous Air Quality
