Fourteen seats in Karnataka will go to the polls in Phase Two on April 26, with the remaining 14 following in Phase 3 on May 7. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) hopes to maintain or even improve upon its tally of 25 seats from the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, while the Congress party aims to carry its winning momentum from the 2023 Vidhan Sabha elections into the national polls and hand the BJP a significant defeat.
The Janata Dal (Secular) (JD(S)), facing an existential crisis, hopes to stay afloat by piggybacking on the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, this alliance with the BJP could backfire as it may be perceived as two dominant communities, accounting for 25% of the population, joining hands. This could help the Congress party consolidate the AHINDA (backward, Dalit, Adivasi, minorities) vote under the leadership of a Kuruba Chief Minister.
The implementation of various schemes by the state government, such as free bus travel, cash income support for women, free electricity, and free ration, has been generally well-received, except for the recently introduced unemployment allowance. However, these schemes have created a conflict of sorts between the middle and poor sections of society. Some middle-class and upper-caste voters feel that these schemes have put a financial strain on the state’s finances. Additionally, some men are discontented as they are not receiving any cash doles, and the free bus travel has resulted in overcrowding during rush hours. Students and youth who attend schools and colleges also share this sentiment and have demanded an increase in the frequency of buses, particularly in rural areas. In a way, the battle has transformed into one between beneficiaries of state government schemes and those of the central government. While some beneficiaries may be inclined to vote for the Congress, others could make a distinction between state and national elections and reward the incumbent Siddaramaiah in the state elections due four years from now.
The JD(S) has never allied with the BJP in the past, although it has formed post-poll arrangements with the party in the state. Its vote share has declined sharply, halving from around 20% in 2004 to 10% in 2019. It lost significant Vokkaliga support in the 2019 elections when it allied with the Congress and has also lost significant Muslim and SC votes in the 2023 elections, where its tally was reduced by half. The Congress has also gained Vokkaliga support due to the influence of leaders like DK Shivkumar and his brother, DK Suresh.
At the all-India level, one in every three voters cast their ballot for the BJP in 2019 due to Prime Minister Modi. In Karnataka, that number was one in every two. The Modi factor, which was 32% in India, was 53% in Karnataka in 2019, according to the CSDS NES. The Karnataka BJP is heavily reliant on Modi’s charisma to neutralize anti-incumbency against its MPs. It has dropped eight sitting MPs and changed the seats of one, leading to local resentment and open rebellion in some seats like Shimoga.
There are four seats – Chamrajnagar, Tumkur, Koppal, and Bellary – where the BJP won by less than 5% margins. In Hassan and Mandya, the coordination between JD(S) and BJP workers will be crucial. While the JD(S) is contesting three seats, the BJP is contesting 25 seats, including Bangalore Rural, where the JD(S) candidate and son-in-law of Deve Gowda, Manjunath, is contesting on the lotus symbol.
The Karnataka Lok Sabha polls promise to be a fascinating contest, and we will have to wait until June 4 for the results to become clear.
