With the US presidential election looming in November, China faces a ‘lose-lose’ scenario regardless of the outcome. Both incumbent President Joe Biden and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump have presented themselves as tough negotiators who will take a firm stand against China’s growing influence.
Biden’s more predictable approach could appeal to China’s desire for stability, but it also raises concerns that stronger US partnerships in the Asia-Pacific could further isolate Beijing. Conversely, Trump’s impulsive nature could disrupt existing alliances, giving China an opportunity to strengthen ties with US allies such as Japan and Australia.
On the economic front, Biden has continued the trade war initiated by Trump, imposing tariffs on Chinese imports and targeting Chinese technology companies. The Biden administration has also criticized China’s ‘overcapacity’ in key industries, signaling further trade conflicts ahead.
Beyond trade, the US has expressed concerns about Chinese software and its potential security risks. Measures have been implemented to restrict or ban Chinese-owned apps, while the US has also provided security assistance to Taiwan, a move strongly opposed by Beijing.
As tensions escalate over Taiwan and the Ukraine conflict, the US has warned China against providing support to Russia, threatening sanctions on Chinese banks. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to visit China this week to discuss these issues, among others.
Some analysts had initially expected Biden to adopt a softer approach toward China compared to Trump, but it has become clear that neither candidate is likely to reverse the decade-long hardening of US policy toward Beijing. This shift began during the Obama administration and has been driven by concerns over China’s military assertiveness and unfair competition with US companies.
While both Biden and Trump have made public remarks that have angered China, it remains unclear which candidate’s rhetoric will ultimately translate into more detrimental policies for Beijing. Some analysts believe that Trump’s anti-China stance may make it difficult for him to negotiate with China, while others see his unpredictability as a potential opportunity. Ultimately, China faces a difficult choice in the upcoming US election, with no clear path to improve relations with either candidate.
