New York’s 26th Congressional District is poised for a special election on Tuesday that could potentially narrow the Republican majority in the House. Voters will choose between Democrat Tim Kennedy and Republican Gary Dickson to fill the seat vacated by Democrat Brian Higgins. The district has a long history of Democratic success, with Higgins holding the seat for two decades before resigning. Kennedy, a state senator, and Dickson, a town supervisor, are familiar names to many voters in the district, which encompasses Buffalo and surrounding areas. Kennedy has a significant financial advantage over Dickson in the race, having spent 50 times more on campaign expenses as of the latest filing deadline.
Polls will close at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, and the Associated Press will provide coverage of the special election. The race is expected to be close, with Kennedy holding a narrow lead in recent polls. However, the AP will declare a winner only when it’s determined that there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. A recount is required if a candidate wins by 20 votes or fewer or by less than half a percentage point.
As of November 1, 2022, there were over 512,000 registered voters in the 26th Congressional District, with Democrats holding a significant advantage over Republicans. The turnout in the 2022 general election was 48%, while the recent special election in New York’s 3rd District saw a turnout of around 30%.
The outcome of the special election could have implications for the balance of power in the House, as well as the upcoming November election. If Kennedy wins, Democrats would gain a seat in the House, narrowing the Republican majority. The results will also provide insights into the political leanings of the district under the new congressional maps, which will be in effect for the 2024 election.