Meteorologists are warning of a potentially dangerous 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with a high likelihood of rapidly intensifying storms posing significant risks to lives and property. This phenomenon, where a storm’s wind speed increases by at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less, can catch people off guard and leave little time for preparation.
AccuWeather meteorologists are especially concerned about this year’s conditions, predicting a significant number of such storms. Rapid intensification is dangerous because it can quickly transform a tropical storm into a powerful hurricane, or a hurricane into a more severe category. This year, the combination of unusually warm sea-surface temperatures, the ramp-up of La Niña, and low wind shear create ideal conditions for such rapid developments.
AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva explains, “Key elements we are focusing on include the ramp-up of La Niña and incredibly warm waters over much of the key development areas in the Atlantic.”
The potential for rapid intensification is a major concern because it complicates the forecasting of a storm’s peak intensity and landfall strength. The AccuWeather RealImpactTM Scale for Hurricanes, which considers various factors like wind speed, coastal inundation, and population density, highlights the additional risks posed by rapidly intensifying storms. Large population centers, such as New Orleans, may require up to 72 hours’ notice for evacuations, but a rapidly intensifying storm can significantly reduce this window.
Unusually warm waters are a critical factor this season. Sea-surface temperatures across the Atlantic Basin are at record highs for this time of year. Deep ocean heat content (OHC) further fuels storm intensification. DaSilva warns, “High OHC values can greatly aid storms in triggering rapid intensification.”
Historical examples like Hurricane Ian in 2022 and Hurricane Otis in 2023 illustrate the devastating impact of rapid intensification. Ian, which intensified to a Category 5 hurricane before hitting Florida, caused $113 billion in damages and claimed 161 lives. Otis, a Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, caused significant destruction and loss of life in Mexico.
As the 2024 hurricane season progresses, residents in vulnerable areas are urged to stay informed, prepare emergency kits, and have evacuation plans ready. Rapid intensification can drastically change the forecast and risks, underscoring the need for vigilant preparation.
