The arrival and progress of the southwest monsoon in India have been closely monitored this season, with recent updates from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) highlighting delays and advancements. Although the monsoon arrived in Madhya Pradesh three days behind schedule, according to IMD, it is projected to cover the entire state within the next four to five days.
Where has the monsoon reached this week? As per the latest update by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), during the week in question, there was no significant progression of the monsoon. Moreover, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) remained stationary, passing through specific locations from June 13th to June 19th. These locations included Navsari, Jalgaon, Amravati, Chandrapur, Bijapur, Sukma, Malkangiri, Vizianagaram, and Islampur. This indicates that the monsoon had not advanced beyond these points during this period.
Where will the monsoon reach in the coming days? The Southwest Monsoon has made additional progress, now extending into more areas of Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, the Northwest Bay of Bengal, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and some parts of Bihar, IMD stated. As of the latest update, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) now traverses through Amravati, Gondia, Durg, Rampur (Kalahandi), Malda, Bhagalpur, and Raxaul. Favourable conditions are expected to facilitate the further advancement of the Southwest Monsoon into several additional regions over the next 3-4 days. These areas include: North Arabian Sea, Gujarat State, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Northwest Bay of Bengal, Some parts of Gangetic West Bengal, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh. Additionally, the monsoon is likely to extend its coverage over more parts of central India and northwest India, including the Western Himalayan Region, in the subsequent days of the week. This forecast indicates a broadening of the monsoon’s influence across these regions in the coming days.
Cyclonic circulation and rain predictions
There are two cyclonic circulations: one over Assam and neighbouring areas and another over Bihar & surrounding regions in the lower tropospheric levels. Strong southwesterly to southerly winds prevail from the Bay of Bengal towards northeastern India at lower tropospheric levels. These weather conditions are expected to bring the following impacts:
North-east India and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal
Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal are expecting widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 Kmph) throughout the week. Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura will see heavy rainfall expected on June 22nd & 23rd.
North India
West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Andaman & Nicobar Islands will have fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds is very likely during the week. Jharkhand will observe isolated heavy rainfall likely on June 20th & 21st. Andaman & Nicobar Islands: Isolated heavy rainfall is expected on June 23rd & 24th.
