Thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrats have a renewed fighting chance against former US President Donald Trump. Harris, the presumptive presidential nominee of the Democratic Party, has injected a fresh lease of life in the US presidential election that had been heavily tilted in Trump’s favor for months. Now, after months of trailing and weeks of turmoil following President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate with Trump, the Democrats have a fighting chance as Kamala is giving a neck-to-neck fight to Trump in surveys. In at least two of the latest polls, she has even acquired a lead over Trump and, in others, she has considerably narrowed the gap.
In two polls conducted over the past 10 days, Harris had a lead over Trump. In The Morning Consult poll conducted on July 22-24, Harris led by 1 percent as 46 percent participants favored against 45 percent who chose Trump. In the Reuters-Ipsos poll conducted on July 22-23, Harris led by 2 percent as 44 percent of voters favored her against 42 percent choosing Trump. Notably, in the previous The Morning Consult poll conducted when Biden was still in the race, Trump was ahead by 4 percent. The agency noted that the level of support that Kamala has at the onset of her campaign is more than the highest support that Biden had in the two-year campaign that he ran during 2022-24. It further said that, once she replaced Biden, fewer voters indicated they could choose a third candidate. Moreover, in the case of a trilateral contest between Harris, Trump, and Independent Robert F Kennedy, Harris led Trump 42 percent to 38 percent, according to the Reuters-Ipsos poll. The scenario, however, looks unlikely as Kennedy is unlikely to qualify to be on the ballot in the election due to low support.
In the US electoral system, direct vote matters little. Unlike India or the United Kingdom, more votes don’t mean victory. In the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton had more votes than Trump but Trump still won as he won a bunch of states that have more electors for the electoral college. In the United States, each state sends a fixed number of electors to the electoral college. This electoral college then elects the president. Effectively, unlike India or the UK, the American candidates don’t fight one large national election but 50 state elections where victories in critical states decide the result. While several states are almost always Democrat or Republican, there are ‘swing states’ that sway from one party to another and are the real deciders of the election result. It is in these states that the contest is fiercest and matters the most. The seven swing states for the 2024 election are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The Emmerson College-The Hill poll published on Thursday shows Trump only narrowly ahead of Harris:
– Arizona: Trump: 49, Harris: 44
– Georgia: Trump: 48, Harris: 46
– Michigan: Trump 46, Harris: 45
– Wisconsin: Trump: 47, Harris: 47
Caroline Vakil, who reported the poll’s findings in The Hill, noted that the results fall within the margin of error in every state except for Arizona, which means that Harris and Trump could actually be tied in most of these swing states. In a separate poll by The New York Times and Siena College, Harris had narrowed Trump’s lead to 1 percent. Earlier in July, when Biden was still in the race, the lead was 6 percent. Though the poll was national and did not focus on swing states, The Times noted that Kamala’s higher appeal amongst younger and more diverse voters could put renewed focus on Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, which were appearing to favor Trump when he was pitched against Biden.
