Despite the impressive box office success of “Deadpool & Wolverine” in its second weekend, grossing more than most films in their opening weekend and poised to become one of the MCU’s biggest hits, its success might not be a panacea for the issues plaguing the franchise. While the film’s performance is a welcome relief after the disappointing runs of “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” and “The Marvels,” a single success cannot mend the cracks that have emerged since 2019. The MCU has experienced a decline in quality and audience reception, despite the success of films like “Spider-Man: No Way Home” and “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3.” Ignoring these underlying issues and merely celebrating “Deadpool & Wolverine” as a solution won’t help Marvel learn from its mistakes.
“Deadpool & Wolverine” has already surpassed the box office totals of the first two “Deadpool” films, a feat largely attributed to the star power of Hugh Jackman’s return as Wolverine after his 2017 departure in “Logan.” Ryan Reynolds’s Deadpool, while successful on its own, clearly reached a new level of box office gold when paired with Jackman. This success is further amplified by the film’s inclusion of numerous cameos and co-starring roles from the 20th Century Fox era of X-Men and Marvel movies, triggering a wave of nostalgia reminiscent of “Spider-Man: No Way Home” in 2021. However, this nostalgic formula may not be easily replicated. Will a “Deadpool & Wolverine 2” have the same impact, even with Jackman’s return? The well of nostalgia can only be tapped so many times before diminishing returns set in.
The upcoming “Captain America: Brave New World” in February 2025, while featuring Anthony Mackie, who has been a supporting figure in the MCU for over a decade, doesn’t possess the same star power as Reynolds or Jackman. It’s unlikely to replicate the success of “Deadpool & Wolverine.” This dilemma highlights Marvel’s success as a victim of its own making. Movies costing $200 million or more struggle to justify their budget, even if they perform well. Even if “Brave New World” surpasses its predecessors and reaches the $300 million domestic range, it might still be considered a failure compared to the box office behemoth that is “Deadpool & Wolverine.”
Adding to the challenges is the prospect of a packed 2025 release schedule for Marvel. Following “Brave New World,” Marvel has “Thunderbolts” in May and “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” in July. The “Blade” reboot, initially slated for November, is uncertain due to the lack of a director. While multiple Marvel releases in a year can be exciting, releasing three films in a seven-month span risks oversaturation, a factor that contributed to the MCU’s downward spiral. Even with quality releases, too many movies can create fatigue. However, quality remains a concern for Marvel. Despite its star power, “Deadpool & Wolverine” has been criticized for its weak plot, relying heavily on its leads. Other upcoming releases face an even greater challenge without such star-powered crutches.
Adding to the MCU’s woes are the low-quality films from Sony, which are still associated with Marvel. Outside of “Venom,” Sony’s attempts to launch films based on Spider-Man’s villains and supporting characters have been largely disastrous. “Morbius,” “Madame Web,” and the upcoming “Kraven the Hunter” all seem destined to contribute to superhero fatigue. While these films are produced by Sony, they bear the Marvel name, tainting the brand. The MCU, once seemingly immune to such backlash, is now susceptible, as demonstrated by Marvel Studios’ own failures in 2023.
Meanwhile, DC has a chance to reclaim its brand. After its failed attempts to emulate the MCU’s interconnected universe, DC is poised for a fresh start with “Superman,” directed by James Gunn, scheduled for release in theaters two weeks before “The Fantastic Four: First Steps.” Gunn’s success with “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” as the only live-action Marvel hit in 2023 and his transition to DC Studios, co-CEO role, and exclusive DC film commitments make him a potential game-changer for DC. Consistent high-quality DC films could significantly impact Marvel’s bottom line. The proximity of the two rivals’ releases, a rarity in the past, could lead to a box office battle that Marvel didn’t anticipate. If audiences favor “Superman” over “The Fantastic Four,” it could have a significant impact on the latter’s box office performance.
While Marvel’s continued success is desired for its role in keeping theaters alive in the 21st century, the MCU needs to address its issues. Reliance on big-budget ventures and star power alone won’t suffice. The next two Avengers films, scheduled for 2026 and 2027, will be a crucial test for the franchise. Marvel needs to find a way to save itself, and throwing money at the Russo brothers and Robert Downey Jr. isn’t the answer.
