India’s Population Projections: A More Gender-Balanced Future?

A recent report released by India’s Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, titled ‘Women and Men in India 2023,’ offers insights into the country’s projected population trends and socio-economic indicators by 2036. The report paints a picture of a future India with a larger population, but one that is also more gender-balanced and developmentally advanced.

By 2036, India’s population is projected to reach 152.2 crore (1.522 billion), with a slightly improved female percentage reaching 48.8%, compared to 48.5% in 2011. This indicates a gradual shift towards a more equitable gender distribution within the population. The report attributes this positive trend to several factors, including declining fertility rates.

The report also highlights encouraging advancements in various social and economic indicators. For instance, the sex ratio is projected to improve to 952 women per 1000 men by 2036, compared to 943 in 2011. This signals a significant stride towards a more gender-positive society.

Additionally, the report indicates a substantial increase in the proportion of the population aged 60 years and above, signifying an aging population and the need for effective policies to address the needs of this demographic. Furthermore, the report points to a decline in the age-specific fertility rate (ASFR), particularly in the age group of 20-24 and 25-29 years. This suggests that women are delaying parenthood, possibly due to factors such as increased education and career aspirations.

The report also notes significant achievements in reducing maternal and infant mortality rates. India has successfully brought down its Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) to 97 per lakh live births in 2018-20, achieving a major milestone. This achievement is a testament to the country’s efforts in improving healthcare access and quality for pregnant women.

Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) has also shown a consistent decline over the years, with both male and female IMR reaching an equal level of 28 infants per 1000 live births in 2020. This positive trend reflects progress in improving child health and reducing infant deaths.

The report also sheds light on the encouraging rise in female labor force participation. The Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) for women aged 15 years and above has shown a significant increase from 23.3% in 2017-18 to 37% in 2022-23. This surge indicates an increasing number of women entering the workforce, contributing to economic growth and challenging traditional gender roles.

The report also underlines the growing influence of women entrepreneurs in India. The Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) has recognized a total of 1,17,254 start-ups since 2016, with 55,816 led by women, comprising 47.6% of the total recognized start-ups. This substantial representation emphasizes the increasing role of women in India’s entrepreneurial landscape.

Overall, the report highlights a dynamic and evolving India, where a larger population is coupled with positive trends in gender equality, declining fertility rates, improved maternal and infant mortality, and rising female labor force participation. These developments point to a more gender-balanced and developed India in the coming years.

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