A recent poll conducted for the Financial Times and the University of Michigan Ross School of Business reveals a significant shift in voter sentiment: Vice President Kamala Harris has overtaken former President Donald Trump in public trust on economic matters. This marks the first time in nearly a year of tracking that the Democratic candidate has led on this issue.
The poll indicates that 42% of Americans trust Harris more to handle the economy, compared to 41% for Trump. This represents a 7-point jump for Harris from President Biden’s numbers in July, while Trump’s figures remain unchanged. Professor Erik Gordon of the University of Michigan suggests that this shift reflects not only Harris’s potential but also the public’s perception of Biden’s economic performance.
While the U.S. economy is showing strong growth and employment numbers, inflation continues to be a top concern for voters heading into the November election. Only 19% of respondents believe they are better off today than when Biden took office in 2021.
Interestingly, the survey highlights a potential opportunity for Harris to differentiate herself from Biden’s economic policies. Sixty percent of those polled believe she should either break completely from the president’s approach or make significant changes to his platform.
Despite Harris’s apparent advantage, the poll also suggests that underlying economic anxieties could still benefit Trump. Only 25% of registered voters rated current economic conditions as “excellent” or “good.” Furthermore, 42% believe they would be better off if Trump won another term, compared to 33% who feel they would fare better under a Harris presidency.
Trump also maintains a lead on specific issues like trade relations with China, leading Harris 43% to 39%. Professor Thomas Gift of University College London emphasizes the significance of these numbers, stating that if Trump can’t win on key issues like the economy and cost of living, his chances of victory are slim.
Both candidates will need to address voter concerns regarding the economy as the campaign progresses. With 53% of Americans citing jobs and cost of living as their top issues, the candidate who can convince the electorate of their economic expertise may have the upper hand in November.
The FT-Michigan Ross Poll was conducted online from August 1-5 and reflects the opinions of 1,001 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. A separate poll conducted by Quantus Polls and News between August 7 and 8 shows Harris holding a narrow lead over Trump in the general election, with 47% of the vote compared to Trump’s 46%.
As the campaign heats up, the focus on economic issues is likely to intensify. The candidate who can best address voter anxieties and articulate a compelling vision for the future of the U.S. economy may have the advantage in the upcoming election.
