Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Independent presidential candidate who has been running a long-shot campaign for the 2024 election, is reportedly preparing to exit the race. While his presence in the election may have seemed insignificant at first, his departure could have a significant impact on the outcome, especially in a closely contested race.
Analysts believe that Kennedy’s supporters are more likely to shift their allegiance to Donald Trump than Kamala Harris. This is based on the fact that Kennedy’s political views align more closely with Trump’s than with Harris’s. Kennedy’s supporters are largely conservative or moderate Republicans, and they are likely to see Trump as a more appealing alternative to Harris. This assumption is further bolstered by reports that Kennedy may be considering endorsing Trump.
Multiple news outlets, including The New York Times and CNN, have reported that Kennedy might announce his departure from the race and endorse Trump as early as Friday. He is also reportedly seeking a Cabinet position in the event of a Trump victory. This move, if confirmed, could significantly shift the electoral landscape.
Evidence points towards Kennedy’s potential endorsement of Trump. His running mate, Nicole Shanahan, has stated that the campaign is considering two options: staying in the race, risking a Harris presidency, or joining forces with Trump. Shanahan highlighted the risk of a Harris victory if Kennedy remains in the race, suggesting that his supporters could draw votes away from Trump, leading to a Harris win.
Kennedy’s support among Republicans has been considerably higher than among Democrats or even Independents. A January survey by NBC News revealed that 18% of Republicans had a positive view of Kennedy, compared to just 4% of Independents and a negative rating of -25% among Democrats. While Kennedy’s support among Independents and Democrats decreased by July, he maintained his popularity among Republicans, with a positive rating of 11%.
The current race, according to the latest poll of polls by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, shows Harris leading Trump by 4.6%. This lead could be halved if Kennedy’s supporters, who make up 2.8% of the vote, switch to Trump. This scenario arises due to the stark contrast in views between Kennedy and Harris. While Harris is pro-choice, pro-vaccine, and supports internationalism, Kennedy holds opposing views on abortion, vaccines, and favors isolationism, making him more aligned with Trump’s far-right MAGA ideology.
As Kennedy’s exit looms, the impact on the election remains uncertain but it is likely to favor Trump. The potential shift of Kennedy’s supporters, particularly those with conservative leanings, could be the deciding factor in a tight race, effectively narrowing the gap between Trump and Harris.
