After years of largely avoiding Afghan airspace, airlines like Singapore Airlines, British Airways, and Lufthansa have resumed flights over the country. This shift comes as the Middle East conflict has made Afghan airspace a relatively safer option compared to other routes.
The decision to fly over Afghanistan was driven by growing concerns about the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. Most carriers stopped transiting Afghanistan in 2021 when the Taliban took over and air traffic control services ceased. However, these services have yet to resume, while the skies between Iran and Israel are increasingly viewed as risky. Many airlines had begun routing through Iran and the Middle East after Russia closed its airspace to most Western carriers in 2022 due to the Ukraine war.
“As conflicts have evolved, the calculus of which airspace to use has changed. Airlines are seeking to mitigate risk as much as possible and they see overflying Afghanistan as the safer option given the current tensions between Iran and Israel,” explained Ian Petchenik, a spokesperson for flight tracking organization Flightradar24.
FlightRadar24 data shows a significant increase in flights over Afghanistan, with more than seven times the number of flights in the second week of August compared to the same period a year ago. This shift began in mid-April, coinciding with reciprocal missile and drone attacks between Iran and Israel. Lufthansa, Singapore Airlines, British Airways, and other carriers started sending a few flights a day over Afghanistan during that period. However, the main growth in overflights has occurred since late July, fueled by concerns of a major escalation following the killing of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah.
While airlines are choosing this route for safety reasons, some pilots remain apprehensive. “You’re depending on the analysis of your airline. Every time I fly out there, I don’t like the feeling of flying over a conflict area where you don’t know, actually, what is happening,” said Otjan de Bruin, a commercial pilot and head of the European Cockpit Association. “It’s always safe enough, until proven otherwise.”
The resumption of flights over Afghanistan has been facilitated by aviation regulators easing their guidance. In early July, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) allowed planes to fly at a lower altitude over a specific part of northeastern Afghanistan, the Wakhan Corridor, which is used to cross from Tajikistan to Pakistan. This opened the path to more types of flights.
Previously, the FAA had lifted its ban on overflights for the entire country in 2022, but required planes to stay above 32,000 feet where surface-to-air weapons are considered less effective. However, few airlines started using Afghan airspace until April.
While there has been increased traffic over the airspace without incident, concerns remain about passenger and crew safety in the event of an emergency landing. In the absence of air traffic control, pilots communicate with nearby aircraft using a protocol established by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and Afghanistan’s Civil Aviation Authority.
The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) issued a conflict-zone information bulletin in July warning that “extremist non-state actor groups remain active and might sporadically target aviation facilities in multiple ways.” This reminder echoes the tragedy of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17, which was shot down over eastern Ukraine in 2014 amidst fighting between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces.
The shift towards Afghan airspace is partly driven by economic pressures on airlines. Following the loss of many shorter paths through Russian airspace since 2022 and the pandemic’s impact, airlines are looking for ways to save money. Flying over Afghanistan provides a more direct route into southern Asia from Europe, saving time and fuel.
“This route saved us a fair chunk of time and fuel,” reported a pilot who flew from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur across central Afghanistan in July. While airlines are making these decisions based on their own assessments of risk, there are few international rules dictating which areas of airspace are safe. Ultimately, the responsibility lies with individual carriers to ensure the safety of their passengers and crew.
