Deepwater Asset Management’s Managing Partner Gene Munster has adjusted his forecast for the future of electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States. He now expects EVs to account for only 25% of new car sales by 2030, down from his previous prediction of 50%.
Munster attributes this revised forecast to what he calls an “EV Winter,” referring to the current slowdown in EV adoption. He cites several factors contributing to this trend, including consumer anxieties about the availability and accessibility of charging infrastructure, concerns about range limitations, and the higher cost of EVs compared to traditional gasoline-powered vehicles.
This consumer hesitation has also led traditional automakers like Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis to scale back their investments in EV development, further exacerbating the slowdown, according to Munster. Deepwater now anticipates the EV industry to reach the 50% market share threshold not until 2036.
Despite this revised outlook, Munster remains optimistic about the long-term future of Tesla. He forecasts that the EV giant will grow its U.S. deliveries at an average rate of 15% per year, achieving a 40% U.S. market share by 2030. This prediction is based on Munster’s belief that Tesla’s continued investments in EV production will result in vehicles that offer the best value for the price, leading to a strong market position.
Munster acknowledges the current slowdown in EV adoption but remains confident in the long-term prospects of electrification. He points to the upcoming release of over 30 new EV models by the end of 2025, including Tesla’s Model 2, the next generation Chevrolet Bolt EV, the Chrysler EV Crossover, and Lucid Gravity, as evidence that the industry is moving towards a more electrified future.
While the adoption of EVs may be taking longer than anticipated, Munster believes that “electrification is the future” and that the current slowdown is merely a temporary phase. The influx of new EV models and continued investments in technology suggest that the future of the automotive industry is headed toward a more sustainable and electrified landscape.
