Azerbaijan is holding a snap parliamentary election on Sunday, marking the first such vote since the country regained full control of the former breakaway territory of Karabakh in a decisive military offensive last year. The election, however, is not anticipated to bring about any major shifts in the power dynamics of the Milli Mejlis parliament, which has been largely dominated by the New Azerbaijan party of President Ilham Aliyev since its inception.
While the constitutional mandate for the election was set for November, President Aliyev decreed an earlier date, two months ahead of schedule. The reasoning behind this decision is attributed to Baku’s hosting of the United Nations climate talks known as COP29 in November. This move has been interpreted by some as an attempt to minimize any potential disruptions to the summit proceedings.
Azerbaijan’s political landscape has been characterized by a longstanding dominance of the Aliyev family. President Ilham Aliyev, alongside his father Heydar Aliyev, has maintained a firm grip on power since 1993. This period has been marked by a suppression of dissent, despite the nation’s burgeoning wealth derived from vast oil and natural gas reserves.
The New Azerbaijan party currently holds a commanding majority in the parliament, controlling 69 out of 125 seats. The remaining seats are largely occupied by smaller pro-government parties and independent candidates. The Musavat party, the primary opposition force, has put forward 34 candidates for the election, but only 25 have been registered. The Republican Alternative opposition party is fielding 12 candidates.
This election takes place just under a year after Azerbaijani forces successfully routed the remaining forces of the self-declared government in the Karabakh region, which had been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia since 1994. The majority of the region’s 120,000 Armenian residents were forced to flee during the military offensive.
The national election commission has announced that 50 organizations will be observing the elections. The largest observation contingent, from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), is scheduled to release its preliminary assessment of the election on Monday. While the OSCE will be monitoring the elections, it remains to be seen if the results will be seen as credible by the international community given Azerbaijan’s history of suppressing dissent and controlling elections.
