The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, typically September 10th, is fast approaching. While the last few weeks have been unusually quiet with no named storms since Ernesto on August 12th, experts warn that a surge in activity is likely on the horizon. In fact, the last time the Atlantic Basin saw no named storms between August 13th and September 3rd was in 1968, according to Philip Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University.
Several factors have contributed to the recent quiet spell. Scientists point to the presence of Saharan dust, which has been moving across the Atlantic Ocean in unusually intense plumes during July and August. This dust, along with dry air, has effectively limited the potential for tropical wave development. Additionally, a northward displacement of the storm track across West Africa has brought abnormal rainfall to portions of Africa, diverting disturbances into the Atlantic over cooler waters and exposing them to dry air from the mid-latitudes, further hindering their chances of developing into storms.
Despite the recent lull, the seasonal forecast remains on track for an above-average hurricane season. Dust levels are trending downward, and conditions are expected to become more favorable for tropical cyclone activity as the month progresses. While multiple tropical disturbances are currently being monitored, none are expected to develop significantly in the next seven days.
Looking ahead, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s long-range outlook suggests a slight to moderate chance of new tropical development over the Central Atlantic Ocean in mid-September. This hints at a potential increase in activity in the coming weeks. The 2024 hurricane season has already seen five named storms, with three of them becoming hurricanes. While the current activity may be low, experts caution that the season is far from over. The most active Atlantic hurricane seasons on record, 2020 and 2005, saw nearly half their total named storms occurring after September 3rd, making the coming weeks a critical period for hurricane preparedness.
NOAA’s hurricane outlook for the 2024 season predicts 17 to 24 named storms, with eight to 13 of them becoming hurricanes, and four to seven of those reaching major hurricane strength. The average number of named storms during a season is 14, with seven hurricanes. Factors such as the end of El Niño giving way to a developing La Niña event in the equatorial eastern Pacific, record warm ocean temperatures across much of the Atlantic Basin, and above-average African monsoon activity are all contributing to the forecast for an above-average hurricane season this year.
