Allan Lichtman, a historian known for his accurate predictions of US election outcomes, has declared Kamala Harris as the likely winner of the 2024 Presidential election. Known as the election ‘Nostradamus’, Lichtman employs his ‘Keys to the White House’ model, which has successfully predicted the outcome of the past ten elections since 1984.
Lichtman’s prediction, announced in a video for the New York Times, comes just days before the first Presidential debate between incumbent President Biden and his challenger, Donald Trump. He attributes his forecast to several factors that currently favor the Democrats, including a stable economy, successful policies enacted by the Biden administration, and the absence of a strong third-party candidate.
The ‘Keys to the White House’ model is based on thirteen key factors, which are assessed to determine whether they favor or oppose the incumbent party. The model predicts a victory for the incumbent if fewer than six of the thirteen keys lean against them. Lichtman states that while the model is not yet finalized, the current trends suggest a Democratic victory.
He acknowledges that while several key factors could potentially shift in favor of Trump, the current situation doesn’t indicate a sufficient number of unfavorable keys for a Republican win. Lichtman asserts that three of the thirteen keys are currently leaning against the Democratic party, while two more could potentially shift. However, even with these five unfavorable keys, it’s unlikely to be enough for Trump to claim the White House.
With early voting set to begin in several states by the end of September, the upcoming election remains a closely watched contest. The next 61 days will be crucial in determining the outcome of the election, which is shaping up to be a closely fought battle between the two major parties.
