The United States and Iraq have reached a significant agreement on the withdrawal of US-led coalition forces from Iraq. This decision, which has been agreed upon in principle and awaits final approval from both governments, will see hundreds of troops depart by September 2025, with the remaining troops leaving by the end of 2026.
“We have an agreement, it’s now just a question of when to announce it,” a senior US official stated.
While the withdrawal is the primary focus, the US and Iraq are also aiming to establish a new advisory relationship. This could potentially see some US troops remaining in Iraq even after the drawdown is complete.
The announcement of this agreement was initially scheduled for several weeks ago, but it was postponed due to escalating regional tensions connected to Israel’s war in Gaza and to finalize remaining details.
The agreement, which is expected to be announced this month, comes after over six months of negotiations between Baghdad and Washington. These talks were initiated by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in January, amidst attacks by Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups targeting US forces stationed at Iraqi bases.
These attacks, involving rockets and drones, resulted in the deaths of three American soldiers and injuries to dozens more. This led to several retaliatory strikes by the US, threatening the Iraqi government’s efforts to stabilize the country after decades of conflict.
The US currently has approximately 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in neighboring Syria. These troops are part of the coalition formed in 2014 to combat the Islamic State group, which at one point held control of roughly a third of Iraq and Syria.
While the Islamic State was territorially defeated in Iraq at the end of 2017 and in Syria in 2019, Iraq has shown its capability to handle any remaining threat, according to Farhad Alaaldin, foreign affairs advisor to the Iraqi prime minister.
The initial US invasion of Iraq in 2003 led to the overthrow of dictator Saddam Hussein. After withdrawing in 2011, the US re-entered Iraq in 2014 to spearhead the coalition against the Islamic State. Other nations, including Germany, France, Spain, and Italy, also contribute troops to the coalition.
Under the withdrawal plan, all coalition forces will depart from the Ain al-Asad airbase in western Anbar province and significantly reduce their presence in Baghdad by September 2025.
US and other coalition troops are expected to remain in Erbil, located in the semi-autonomous northern Kurdistan region, for an additional year until around the end of 2026. This extended presence is to facilitate ongoing operations against the Islamic State in Syria.
The exact details of troop movements are kept confidential due to their military sensitivity.
This withdrawal marks a notable shift in Washington’s military posture in the region. While primarily focused on countering the Islamic State, US officials acknowledge their presence also serves as a strategic position to counter Iranian influence. This position has gained even more importance as Israel and Iran escalate their regional confrontation.
In recent months, US forces in Iraq have shot down rockets and drones fired towards Israel, according to US officials.
Prime Minister al-Sudani, while appreciative of the US’s assistance, has stated that US troops have become a magnet for instability. They are frequently targeted and respond with strikes that are often not coordinated with the Iraqi government.
When announced, the agreement will likely be seen as a political victory for al-Sudani as he navigates Iraq’s position as an ally of both Washington and Tehran.
The first phase of the withdrawal will conclude one month before the Iraqi parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2025. For the US, the two-year timeframe provides “breathing room,” allowing for potential adjustments if the regional situation changes, a US official said.
