North Korea is adjusting its strategy in anticipation of the 2024 US presidential election, particularly the potential showdown between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. This shift in strategy follows the decision of President Joe Biden not to seek re-election, which has altered Pyongyang’s calculations.
According to Anthony Holmes, a former special adviser for North Korea at the Office of the Secretary of Defense, North Korea had initially anticipated a contest between President Biden and former President Trump. However, with the nomination of Vice President Harris as the Democratic candidate, Pyongyang must now refine its approach before the November election.
Holmes, writing in an opinion piece for Nikkei Asia, outlined North Korea’s expected tactics. These include publicly dismissing negotiations with the US, while simultaneously hinting at openness if certain conditions are met, such as the relaxation of sanctions. North Korea might also conduct significant events, such as a nuclear test, to demonstrate its capabilities and readiness for conflict. Such an event would likely be accompanied by statements from senior officials, including North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s sister, Kim Yo Jung, emphasizing North Korea’s stance.
Holmes believes that North Korea’s ultimate goal is to develop advanced weapons systems to undermine US security guarantees on the Korean Peninsula. This, in turn, aims to coerce South Korea into a favorable reunification. He suggests that North Korea might be more comfortable negotiating with Trump because they believe they know how to handle him, citing his willingness to take risks and his personal relationship with Kim Jong Un.
The evolving political landscape in the US has significant implications for North Korea’s strategy. The shift from a Biden-Trump contest to a Harris-Trump contest means Pyongyang must reassess its diplomatic and military tactics.
In addition to the external pressures of the US election, Kim Jong Un has also faced internal challenges, including public discontent over flood damage. He has attempted to deflect this criticism onto provincial officials. Further highlighting internal unrest is the recent defection of a North Korean soldier to South Korea.
In a separate development, US Army Private Travis King, who fled to North Korea, has agreed to plead guilty to multiple charges, including desertion.
While North Korea has dismissed former President Trump’s comments about his amicable relationship with leader Kim, the country remains steadfast in its nuclear ambitions, asserting that their nuclear arsenal is prepared for any US leader.
The 2024 US presidential election will undoubtedly have a significant impact on North Korea’s future. The country’s response to the changing political landscape will be closely watched by the international community.
