Following the first presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump, veteran pollster Nate Silver has weighed in on the outcome. He believes that Harris emerged as the winner, based on a consensus view and the results of several indicators.
Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, referenced Polymarket predictions, which showed a 99% chance of Harris being declared the winner. He also pointed to betting market odds, where Harris closed the gap with Trump after initially trailing. The decline in Bitcoin’s value following the debate, a cryptocurrency Trump has been more supportive of than Harris, was another sign pointing towards Trump’s potential loss. Even Fox News, known for its pro-Trump stance, acknowledged Harris’s victory in a panel discussion, and CNN’s flash poll also showed favor towards the Vice President.
Silver highlights Harris’s strategic approach, stating that she effectively threw out bait that Trump consistently took. He criticizes Trump’s performance, suggesting he was unprepared for the extended two-minute speaking slots and the muted microphones. Trump’s tendency to speak as though addressing a rally, using coded language understood mainly by his base, further detracted from his performance, according to Silver.
Regarding Republican complaints about biased moderation, Silver views it as a negative indicator for Trump. He acknowledges that the questions were favorable to Harris, with ABC News’ real-time fact-checking further benefiting her.
Silver delves into the debate’s key issues, recognizing the economy as Trump’s strong point due to his simple rhetoric. However, he believes Trump’s initial strong performance on this topic faded due to fatigue. The sustained debate on abortion, a subject that favors Democrats, proved to be a crucial moment for Harris, further solidifying her advantage. Trump’s inability to effectively defend the Supreme Court’s stance on abortion and his lack of detail regarding his healthcare plan, also contributed to Harris’s success, according to Silver.
Harris’s consistent reiteration of themes from her convention speech, such as American competitiveness against China and the need for a strong military, while present, did not yield a significant boost in her favor. Silver notes that Trump, despite some effective moments, struggled to build momentum.
Looking ahead, Silver suggests that if Harris experiences a poll surge after the debate, both candidates will be incentivized to engage in a second debate. He concludes that the race has become a close contest. Silver ultimately acknowledges that while Harris achieved the desired outcome of the debate, she must now demonstrate her ability to translate that success into measurable poll gains.
