The asteroid Apophis, nicknamed the ‘God of Chaos,’ has captured the attention of scientists and the public alike. This peanut-shaped space rock, roughly the size of the Eiffel Tower, is set to make a remarkably close approach to Earth in 2029. While initial observations suggested a safe flyby, a new study reveals a slim, but not entirely impossible, risk of a collision.
While Apophis isn’t large enough to be considered a ‘planet killer,’ it could still cause significant devastation if it were to strike Earth. The asteroid’s size means it has the potential to wipe out a large city and trigger planet-wide climatic effects.
The threat stems from the possibility of an undiscovered asteroid impacting Apophis, altering its trajectory. While scientists have previously assessed the risk of known asteroids nudging Apophis off course, they acknowledge the possibility of an unknown space rock, too small or too close to the sun to be detected, interfering with its path.
According to the new study, the chances of such an impact occurring in the next five years are less than one in a million. Furthermore, the odds of this impact significantly altering Apophis’s course and bringing it closer to Earth are less than one in a billion. However, even if Apophis were to be nudged off course, there’s no guarantee it would be directed towards Earth. It could just as easily move further away from our planet.
Despite these low probabilities, scientists will be unable to definitively rule out a collision until 2027. Currently, Apophis is out of sight due to its proximity to the sun, making it impossible to track. Once it reappears, astronomers will have a better understanding of its path and be able to calculate the odds of a potential change in course leading up to its 2029 flyby.
Beyond 2029, Apophis is expected to make numerous close approaches to Earth, with particularly close encounters anticipated in 2051, 2066, and 2080. However, current models suggest the asteroid poses no threat to Earth for at least the next century.
The close flyby of Apophis in 2029 will provide a valuable opportunity for scientists to study this intriguing space rock. NASA’s OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, which is currently en route to Earth after its successful mission to collect samples from the asteroid Bennu, will be making a close flyby of Apophis shortly after its return. This flyby will provide valuable data to help scientists better understand the asteroid’s composition and potential hazards.
