JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee has reiterated an Overweight rating on Apple Inc (AAPL) with a price target of $265. While the Cupertino-based tech giant’s latest iPhone 16 series is set to launch on September 20th, Chatterjee’s analysis of early demand indicators reveals a mixed picture.
Chatterjee notes that initial demand for the iPhone 16 series appears to be in line with last year’s iPhone 15 series. He points to lead times across critical markets like the U.S., China, Germany, and the UK, which suggest similar demand levels during the first week of availability. However, Chatterjee highlights that the early demand for Pro models is showing a slight softening compared to the iPhone 15 series.
Looking at delivery-at-home timing for the different iPhone 16 models, Chatterjee tracked an average of 5 days for the 16, 2 days for the 16 Plus, 14 days for the 16 Pro, and 21 days for the 16 Pro Max in week one. In comparison, during the first week of iPhone 15 availability last year, the average delivery times were 2 days for the 15, 5 days for the 15 Plus, 22 days for the 15 Pro, and 41 days for the 15 Pro Max.
While the early demand for Pro models might be slightly softer, the analyst notes that the overall mix continues to favor Pro models, especially the Pro Max, with extended lead times compared to the base and Plus models. This indicates that the demand for the higher-end models is still robust.
In the U.S., for example, the iPhone 16 and 16 Plus models have zero-day lead times, while the Pro and Pro Max models have lead times of 6 and 20 days, respectively. When it comes to in-store availability, all iPhone 16, Plus, and Pro models are available for pick-up on September 20th, while most variants of the 16 Pro Max are unavailable in-store.
Similar trends are observed in other regions tracked by Chatterjee, except for China, where the difference in lead times between base models and Pro models is less significant. In China, the lead times for the iPhone 16 and 16 Plus are 18 and 6 days, respectively, while the lead times for the Pro and Pro Max are 23 days each. In-store availability in China mirrors the trend seen in the US, with all iPhone 16 and 16 Plus models available for pick-up, while only select Pro models are available and no Pro Max models are available.
Ultimately, these early demand indicators suggest a mixed picture for the iPhone 16 series. While overall demand seems to be in line with last year’s iPhone 15, the demand for Pro models, particularly the Pro Max, is showing signs of a slightly softer start. Despite this, the extended lead times for the Pro Max model indicate that demand for the higher-end devices remains strong. The analyst’s insights provide valuable insights into the early market performance of Apple’s latest flagship smartphone.
