Jammu and Kashmir is gearing up for a historic moment – its first assembly elections in a decade. The first phase of polling is set to take place on Wednesday, September 18th, with over 23 lakh voters deciding the fate of 219 candidates, including 90 independents, vying for 24 Assembly seats. This initial round will cover eight seats in three districts of the Jammu region and 16 seats in four districts of the Kashmir valley. The Chenab Valley districts of Doda, Kishtwar, and Ramban, as well as the South Kashmir districts of Anantnag, Pulwama, Kulgam, and Shopian will be the focus of this first phase.
The subsequent phases are scheduled for September 25th (26 seats) and October 5th (40 seats), concluding the election process. This electoral journey comes after a period of significant change in the region, starting with the dissolution of the Jammu and Kashmir legislative assembly on November 21, 2018, by the then-Governor Satya Pal Malik. This was followed by the abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution on August 5, 2019, which had previously granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir. The passing of the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act further reshaped the landscape, dividing the state into the union territories of Ladakh and Jammu and Kashmir on October 31, 2019.
On May 5, 2022, the Jammu and Kashmir Delimitation Commission announced the new boundaries, names, and the number of Assembly constituencies. Compared to the previous delimitation, which included 87 seats (including 4 in Ladakh), the new Assembly in the Union Territory now boasts 90 seats: 47 in Kashmir and 43 in Jammu. This represents an increase from the earlier 83 seats in the regions of Jammu and Kashmir, with six additional seats in Jammu and one in Kashmir. These 90 seats will be contested across the three phases mentioned earlier.
Looking back at the 2014 elections, which were conducted across five phases in a unified Jammu and Kashmir, the Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (JKPDP) led by Mufti Mohammad Sayeed emerged as the victor with 28 seats – the most won by any party. However, this was still short of the majority required (44 seats). The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured 25 seats, followed by the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) with 15 seats, and the Congress with 12 seats.
The 2014 elections saw a clear dominance of the JKPDP in Kashmir, winning 25 out of 46 seats in the valley. The BJP, on the other hand, claimed victory in 25 out of 37 seats in the Jammu region, while the Congress secured three out of four seats in the Ladakh division.
In terms of the margin of victory, a total of 50 out of 87 seats were closely contested, with the winning candidates securing a margin of victory of less than 10% of the vote share. The voter turnout was relatively low in the Kashmir valley compared to the Jammu division. The overall voter turnout averaged 65.23% across the five phases of the Assembly elections.
Examining the seat shares since 1996 reveals a decline in the strength of the JKNC, which won 57 seats in 1996, but only 15 in 2014. Conversely, the BJP has experienced a notable rise in power, particularly in the Jammu division, since 2002.
This year, while the Congress has formed an alliance with the NC, the BJP is contesting the polls solo. Although the BJP hasn’t officially formed an alliance with any other party, it has shown support for several independents or local parties that align with the BJP’s stance on J&K, namely accepting the revocation of J&K’s special status.
Beyond these four major contenders, three other parties are noteworthy in the electoral fray – Sajjad Lone’s J&K People’s Conference (PC), ex-Congress veteran Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), and Altaf Bukhari’s J&K Apni Party. As Jammu and Kashmir prepares for these pivotal elections, all eyes are on the outcome, which will shape the future of this complex and historically significant region.
