A Polymarket trader, known as BasedBoi, has made a daring $200,000 bet that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its highly anticipated September 18th meeting. This bold move defies the market’s prevailing expectation of a rate cut, and if successful, would net the trader a substantial $6.5 million payout.
The trader has already put over $100,000 on the line, demonstrating their confidence in this contrarian prediction. The Federal Reserve’s decision has kept market participants on edge, with a rate cut widely considered a near certainty. The CME Fedwatch tool indicates a 100% probability of a rate cut, while Polymarket markets reflect a 98.5% chance. However, the magnitude of the cut remains a point of contention.
Polymarket data shows a 43% likelihood of a 25 basis point (bps) reduction and a 56% chance of a more aggressive 50 bps cut. Over $12 million has been traded on these two options alone, with the entire market seeing a trading volume exceeding $45 million. These odds diverge from Fedwatch, which favors a 50 bps cut with a 67:33 probability.
This massive bet unfolds amidst heightened anticipation for the Fed’s upcoming move. Bitcoin, currently trading at $59,150, and Ethereum, at $2,312, are reflecting broader market caution as uncertainty hangs in the air. Experts anticipate some form of rate cut, with a close split between a 25 bps and 50 bps reduction. BasedBoi’s maverick bet stands out as an outlier, risking a substantial portion of capital on the belief that the Fed will hold rates steady.
This clash between market expectations and individual bets will be a key topic of discussion at Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets event on November 19th. Industry leaders will delve into how macroeconomic factors, like interest rate cuts, are impacting the digital assets and crypto markets.
