The race for the White House is heating up as the 2024 US Presidential election approaches. According to Bloomberg, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, is currently leading former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, in two recent national polls. Both polls, conducted by NBC News and CBS/Ipsos, surveyed registered voters and were released on September 22nd. These polls come at a critical juncture as several states have initiated early voting ahead of the November 2024 election.
The NBC News poll, conducted from September 13th to 17th, showed Harris leading Trump by 49% to 44%. While this represents a 5% lead, the poll carries a 5% margin of error, suggesting the race could be much tighter than it appears. The CBS/Ipsos poll, conducted from September 18th to 20th, found Harris ahead of Trump by a slightly wider margin of 52% to 48%. Notably, this poll took place after the alleged second assassination attempt against Trump on September 17th.
The NBC News poll also revealed a significant increase in positive sentiment towards Harris since she assumed the Democratic nomination from President Joe Biden in July 2024. The percentage of registered voters viewing Harris favorably jumped from 32% in an earlier poll to 48% in the September survey. NBC noted that this is the most substantial increase in positive views any candidate has seen since former President George W. Bush’s approval rating surged after the September 11th attacks in 2001.
Meanwhile, early voting has commenced in numerous states, including Minnesota, South Dakota, and Virginia. Other states are expected to join the process in October. ‘Early in-person voting’ allows registered voters to cast their ballots in person before Election Day. These votes are legitimate and are permitted as circumstances may sometimes make it difficult or impossible for individuals to vote on Election Day itself, according to the US government website. Most states in the US allow for in-person early voting within a designated period. While some states require an ‘excuse’ for early voting, others do not.
With the election race remaining extremely close, a limited number of battleground states are likely to decide the next US President. The CBS/Ipsos poll categorized all seven swing states as ‘tossups’, with Harris surpassing the ‘majority’ line but staying within the margin of error in five of these states. Both Trump and Harris are intensifying their campaigns in these swing states to mobilize voters. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat from a swing state, acknowledged the close nature of the race, stating, “This election is going to be close. We have always known that. And in a state like Michigan or Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, we know that this is going to be a close race.”
The CBS poll also highlighted a narrowing of the gap between Trump and Harris on the issue of the economy, which is widely considered a crucial battle point in the election. In September, Trump led Harris on this issue by 53% to 47%, compared to 56% to 43% in August. When asked about the intent behind Trump’s unsubstantiated claims about Haitian immigrants consuming cats and dogs, 65% of surveyed registered voters told CBS it was intended to “make people fearful of migrants,” and 63% believed the stories were “probably false.”
With early voting underway and the race remaining tight, the upcoming weeks promise to be a crucial period for both candidates as they battle for every vote in their quest to secure the White House.
