The political landscape for the 2024 presidential election continues to shift, with recent polls revealing intriguing trends in key swing states. A New York Times poll released on Monday suggests that former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in three crucial states: Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
In Arizona, Trump enjoys a five-point lead, with 50% of likely voters supporting him compared to 45% for Harris. A similar trend is observed in Georgia, where Trump holds a 49%-45% lead. While the race is closer in North Carolina, with Trump leading by a narrow margin of 49%-47%, the poll highlights a potential path to victory for Trump in these traditionally competitive states. Notably, both Arizona and Georgia were won by President Biden in 2020, making a Trump victory in these states a significant shift in the electoral landscape.
The Times poll, conducted from September 17-21, surveyed 2,077 likely voters across the three states. It’s worth noting that Arizona has shown a notable swing toward Trump since August, when a Times poll indicated Harris leading by five points.
However, the picture changes when looking at national polls. A recent Fox News poll revealed a closer contest, with Harris leading Trump by two points nationally. This poll, conducted among registered voters, indicates a 3-point shift in the race since mid-August, when Trump held a 1-point advantage.
The tightening of the race nationally is attributed to several factors, including the Democratic National Convention, endorsements from prominent figures like former Vice President Dick Cheney and former Congresswoman Liz Cheney, and a recent assassination attempt on Trump.
Despite the national polls showing a close race, many Republican pollsters remain optimistic about Trump’s chances. Hillary Clinton beat Trump by two percent in the national vote in 2016, but ultimately lost in the Electoral College. This scenario, according to Republican pollster Daron Shaw, suggests that a national lead of just two points could translate into a Trump victory in the Electoral College.
The race for the presidency remains intensely competitive, with both candidates vying for every vote across the country. The evolving political landscape and the numerous events influencing voter sentiment highlight the importance of tracking these polls and understanding the factors driving these shifts. It will be crucial to continue monitoring these trends as the election approaches, to gain a clearer picture of the potential outcome.
