Japan is grappling with its most significant rice shortage in decades, a perfect storm of adverse weather, a surge in tourists eager to indulge in sushi and other rice-based dishes, and restrictive rice policies. This perfect storm has left supermarkets frequently running out of white rice, with many forced to limit purchases to one bag per customer.
The US Department of Agriculture reports that Japan’s rice stocks are at their lowest levels in over 20 years, as demand has consistently outpaced production for the past three years. The situation is further exacerbated by consumers stockpiling rice in preparation for natural disasters such as typhoons and earthquakes.
The influx of international tourists has played a significant role in the shortage. Japan welcomed 17.8 million visitors in the first half of 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. This influx has led to a surge in demand for sushi and other rice dishes. Tourist consumption of rice increased from 19,000 tons between July 2022 and June 2023 to 51,000 tons in the following year. While significant, this demand spike remains small compared to Japan’s annual domestic rice consumption of over 7 million tons.
However, the situation is further compounded by declining rice production. Aging farmers are retiring, and younger generations are less inclined to pursue a career in agriculture. A series of heatwaves and droughts in the latter half of 2023 further reduced rice harvests.
Japan’s protectionist rice policies have also contributed to the supply shortfall. The country imposes a steep 778% tariff on imported rice, aiming to protect its domestic farmers. While Japan is obligated to import around 682,000 tons of rice annually under the World Trade Organization, the imported rice is primarily used for processing and feed, rather than direct consumer consumption.
Meanwhile, rice exports from Japan have surged, increasing sixfold from 2014 to 2022, reaching nearly 30,000 tons. However, higher domestic prices are pushing up inflation, with rice being one of the main contributors to Japan’s rising food costs.
This situation reflects the delicate balance Japan must maintain between supporting its agricultural sector and meeting the increasing demands of both its residents and tourists. The rice shortage highlights the complex interplay of factors, including weather, policy, and global demand, impacting food security in a major economy.
