As California enters a new water year, the specter of extreme weather looms large. The state’s water year, which runs from October 12th to September 30th of the following year, typically sees fall rain begin in October, with the bulk of rainfall occurring between December and February. April is when we witness peak snowpack. However, this year, climate experts are urging Californians to prepare for a prolonged dry spell and the possibility of intense storms.
Dr. Michael Anderson, California’s State Climatologist, warns that the wet season is likely to get off to a late start. “We’re seeing in the forecast that we’re likely off to another late start to the wet season,” he says, “meaning, the dry conditions continuing and certainly still seeing the above-normal temperatures.” High pressure systems are playing a role in delaying rainfall, pushing storm systems northward. This is evident in the recent precipitation activity concentrated in southern Alaska and northern British Columbia.
While rainfall might be delayed, when it does arrive, forecasters are emphasizing the need for preparedness. Jason Ince, with the California Department of Water Resources, points to the escalating intensity of extreme events: “The one constant we are seeing is that extremes are getting more extreme. Our droughts are getting longer and hotter, our big storms are getting stronger since warmer air can hold more moisture.”
Forecasters are also keeping a close eye on potential Santa Ana and Diablo wind events this fall, as well as the possibility of thunderstorms associated with decaying tropical systems. These conditions raise serious concerns for fire crews, as dry thunderstorms can easily ignite wildfires. “We end up with some pretty good precipitation events sometimes with some thunderstorms, but those thunderstorms, if they’re dry can be fire starters which can be a problem,” says Dr. Anderson.
California’s water demand peaks from May to August, but even in September, the state experienced dangerously high temperatures. This underscores the ongoing challenges posed by the changing climate. As California navigates this new reality, it is essential to remain informed and prepared for the potential impacts of extreme weather. The water year ahead will likely test the state’s resilience, demanding proactive measures to mitigate the risks associated with both drought and intense storms.
