Vail Resorts MTN, a leading ski resort operator, reported a quarterly loss of $4.67 per share for the period ending July 2024, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $4.28. While this represents an improvement from the loss of $3.35 per share a year ago, it still reflects a challenging period for the company. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -9.11%.
Despite the loss, Vail Resorts managed to surpass revenue estimates. The company posted revenues of $265.39 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.14%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $269.77 million. While this revenue growth is encouraging, it’s important to note that the company has topped consensus revenue estimates just once over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of Vail Resorts’ stock price movement will depend heavily on management’s commentary during the earnings call and future earnings expectations. The stock has lost about 14.4% since the beginning of the year, lagging behind the S&P 500’s gain of 20%.
Looking Ahead: What’s Next for Vail Resorts?
Investors are naturally curious about the future trajectory of Vail Resorts’ stock. While there are no guarantees, one key indicator to watch is the company’s earnings outlook. This includes current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarters and how these expectations have changed recently.
Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track these revisions themselves or rely on tools like the Zacks Rank, which has a proven track record of utilizing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Prior to this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Vail Resorts was mixed. While this could change following the earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. This suggests that the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. It will be interesting to observe how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year evolve in the coming days.
The current consensus EPS estimate is -$4.82 on $258.79 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $8.33 on $3.02 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Industry Outlook and Peer Performance
Investors should also consider the outlook for the Leisure and Recreation Services industry, as it can significantly impact the performance of Vail Resorts’ stock. Currently, Leisure and Recreation Services ranks in the top 29% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Research has shown that the top 50% of Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Royal Caribbean (RCL), another company in the same industry, is expected to report its earnings for the quarter ended September 2024. This cruise operator is anticipated to post quarterly earnings of $5.02 per share, representing a year-over-year change of +30.4%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.1% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. Royal Caribbean’s revenues are expected to be $4.84 billion, up 16.3% from the year-ago quarter.
